Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2026-01-18 07:58Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices may experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations. Recent price changes for copper include a decrease of -0.50% for LME copper, -0.63% for SHFE copper, and -0.71% for COMEX copper. The significant inventory accumulation includes LME copper at 144,000 tons (+3.31%), COMEX copper at 54,300 short tons (+4.81%), and SHFE copper at 214,000 tons (+18.3%). The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is at 321,000 tons (+17.20%). The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased to 57.47% (+9.65 percentage points) [4] - Aluminum prices are also expected to face high-level fluctuations due to inventory accumulation. The price of alumina has decreased by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83% to 24,185 CNY/ton. The operating capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina is at 89.16 million tons/year with an operating rate of 80.82% (+0.31 percentage points). Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, and demand is expected to grow, potentially leading to a shortage [4] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with carbonate lithium prices rising by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton. The production of lithium carbonate is at 22,600 tons, with a slight increase of 0.3%. The demand for lithium battery materials continues to grow, and the supply-demand dynamics are expected to reverse, leading to an upward price trend [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply. The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply structure remains tight, and prices are likely to rise further [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic indicators show that the US December CPI year-on-year rate is at 2.70%, matching expectations. Retail sales for November increased by 0.6%, exceeding expectations of 0.4% [8] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows an increase of 3.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.48 percentage points, ranking third among the Shenwan sectors [10] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper price decreased by 0.50%, SHFE copper by 0.63%, and COMEX copper by 0.71%. Inventory levels increased significantly, with LME copper inventory up by 3.31% and SHFE copper inventory up by 18.26% [24] - Aluminum: LME aluminum price fell by 0.73%, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83%. The inventory situation shows a mixed trend, with LME aluminum inventory down by 1.97% and SHFE aluminum inventory up by 29.24% [34] - Lead and Zinc: LME lead price increased by 1.03%, and SHFE lead by 1.62%. LME zinc price rose by 3.17%, and SHFE zinc by 4.38%. The mining profit for zinc increased by 5.77% to 11,284 CNY/ton [48] - Tin and Nickel: LME tin price rose by 11.68%, and SHFE tin by 18.70%. LME nickel price increased by 0.14%, and SHFE nickel by 5.77% [62] 3. Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of lithium carbonate increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene rising by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton. The profit margins for lithium production are showing significant fluctuations [78] - Cobalt: The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices decreased by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply dynamics remain tight, supporting price increases [90]