棕榈油：消息面加剧波动，驱动持续性存疑，豆油：美豆动能不足，区间震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is currently in a relatively high position within the bottom - range oscillation. Although Malaysia will enter the de - stocking period, if the production cut in Malaysia in February is not significant enough under the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy, the fundamental situation of palm oil is not favorable, and it currently lacks the driving force to rise above 9000 yuan/ton. More definite long - entry opportunities for palm oil are expected in February - March. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on short - term operations, and there may be a second bottom - building if there are no more positive news [2][4][6] - Soybean oil is currently in a range - bound operation. The U.S. soybean is expected to show an oscillatory stabilization trend in January. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot prices can provide for the domestic soybean system's spread. Soybean oil is waiting for the thematic resonance of the entire oil and fat sector after it stabilizes [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: Last week, the palm oil market was highly volatile due to changing news. After the MPOB report on Monday fulfilled the expectation of a rebound after the release of negative factors, on Tuesday, news about the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 implementation hit a major positive factor for the palm oil market. With the weakening of geopolitical impacts, international oil prices dropped rapidly, and palm oil followed suit, falling to the first support range of 8400 - 8500. On Thursday night, news about the approaching implementation of U.S. biodiesel policy led to a rebound in U.S. soybean oil, and palm oil sentiment improved. The palm oil 05 contract rose 0.35% last week [1] - Soybean oil: Lacking South American weather - related speculation, the upward driving force of U.S. soybeans was limited. It mainly oscillated within a range following the oil and fat sector. The soybean oil 05 contract rose 0.58% last week [1] 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic 3.2.1 Palm oil - Supply and demand data: MPOB released December palm oil supply - demand data, showing a 7.58% increase in inventory to 3.05 million tons and a 5.46% decrease in production to 1.8298 million tons compared to the previous month, in line with UOB and MPOA estimates. Although the inventory is high, the market had already priced in the December inventory peak. With the 18% production cut shown by SPPOMA in January and the 18% increase in exports in the first 15 days according to ITS, the inventory in January is expected to return to around 2.8 million tons. However, if the month - on - month production cut in January continues to be less than 10%, the annual production in 2026 may increase by 100,000 tons per month on average, releasing continuous supply pressure [2] - Indonesia's policy impact: Indonesia's B50 policy implementation is uncertain, and the government aims to fully implement B40 first. The advancement of B50 depends on technology and POGO levels. There is a fundamental logic for the POGO spread to shrink to $250/ton. Raising Indonesia's export tax may only stimulate Malaysia's exports in the short term but will increase pressure on Indonesia's inventory. Recently, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia has shrunk, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has weakened, and Indonesia's refining profit has remained high, indicating a marginal improvement in Indonesia's willingness to sell, but it is not clear whether the selling pressure has increased significantly [2] - Sales area situation: In the sales areas, India's CPO import profit has declined recently. Although the previous good profit stimulated India's purchases, it was not enough to cause a short - squeeze situation since June. In China, the import profit gap has widened, and the release of the origin's pressure is slow [2] - Outlook and strategy: Palm oil is currently in a relatively high position within the bottom - range oscillation. The more definite long - entry opportunity needs to wait until February - March. In February, if Malaysia's production is less than 1.4 million tons, there will be a rapid de - stocking. In March, the release of the U.S. 2026 biodiesel policy will make the trading process more certain. From last year's rainfall pattern, Malaysia's production from April - May is expected to decline year - on - year, which may also be a potential driving factor. Currently, the valuation is not low, the driving force is not strong, and there may be a second bottom - building without more positive news. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [2][4][6] 3.2.2 Soybean oil - U.S. biodiesel policy impact: Reuters reported that the Trump administration is actively promoting the 2026 biofuel policy, expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. It is considered to set the volume range of D4 biomass diesel between 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons and abandon the plan to punish the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials. This news implies a possible increase in the RVO level, and the expected annual industrial demand for U.S. soybean oil has increased from 7 million tons to 8 - 9 million tons. However, considering the low energy prices and the possible inconsistent statements from the EPA, the upward space of U.S. soybean oil still needs to be viewed cautiously [5] - U.S. soybean situation: As of this week, the growth of Brazilian soybeans is generally good with a positive production outlook, while the core production areas in Argentina are dry, and attention should be paid to the later rainfall forecasts. The positive outlook for South American soybeans has put pressure on the U.S. soybean market. If Argentina does not experience a drought later, it is difficult for the CBOT soybeans in January to rebound significantly, and it is expected to show an oscillatory stabilization trend [5] - Domestic situation: China's customs may accelerate the release of imported soybeans in the first quarter, and the state - reserve auction of imported soybeans is progressing well, which weakens the spread sentiment. However, there will be a shortage of soybean arrivals from March - April, which may support the domestic soybean - related spot and spread to oscillate strongly. The short - term driving force of U.S. soybeans is limited. Due to insufficient export demand and arrivals, domestic soybean oil can maintain a monthly de - stocking process until March - April next year. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot prices can provide for the spread. Soybean oil is currently in a range - bound operation, waiting for the thematic resonance of the entire oil and fat sector after it stabilizes [5][6] 3.3 [盘面基本行情数据] (Basic Market Data of Futures) - Futures prices and changes: The opening price of the palm oil continuous contract was 8,630 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,866 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,490 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,674 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.35%. The opening price of the soybean oil continuous contract was 7,970 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,048 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,874 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,016 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.58%. The opening price of the rapeseed oil continuous contract was 9,025 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,158 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,806 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,063 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.81%. The opening price of the Malaysian palm oil continuous contract was 4,042 ringgit/ton, the highest was 4,147 ringgit/ton, the lowest was 3,968 ringgit/ton, the closing price was 4,056 ringgit/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.45%. The opening price of the CBOT soybean oil continuous contract was 49.80 cents/pound, the highest was 53.48 cents/pound, the lowest was 49.80 cents/pound, the closing price was 52.51 cents/pound, with a weekly increase of 5.74% [9] - Trading volume and position changes: The trading volume of the palm oil continuous contract was 2,707,371 lots, with an increase of 439,942 lots; the position was 415,079 lots, with an increase of 14,526 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil continuous contract was 2,267,429 lots, with an increase of 168,935 lots; the position was 716,141 lots, with an increase of 34,480 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil continuous contract was 999,966 lots, with an increase of 153,895 lots; the position was 269,628 lots, with an increase of 24,507 lots [9] - Price spread and warehouse receipt changes: The closing price of the rapeseed - soybean 05 spread was 1,047 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.10% compared to last week; the soybean - palm oil 05 spread was - 658 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4.36%; the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 12 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 89.29%; the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 130 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 16.67%; the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 53 yuan/ton, with an increase of 152.38%. The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 1,148 lots, a decrease of 100 lots compared to last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 27,959 lots, a decrease of 1,467 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 2,142 lots, an increase of 100 lots [9] 3.4 [油脂基本面核心数据] (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - Malaysian palm oil: The production in December was 1.8298 million tons, with a 5.46% month - on - month decrease. The inventory increased 7.58% to 3.05 million tons. In January, SPPOMA showed an 18% production cut, and ITS showed an 18% increase in exports in the first 15 days. The inventory in January is expected to return to around 2.8 million tons [2] - Indonesian palm oil: The end - of - year inventory is expected to return to a neutral - to - wide level. Recently, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia has shrunk, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has weakened, and the refining profit has remained high, indicating a marginal improvement in the willingness to sell [2][12] - Export and price spread: ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 727,440 tons, a 18.64% increase compared to the same period last month. The POGO spread has been shrinking [12] - Sales area data: India's palm oil import profit is lower than that of soybean and sunflower oils, and the CNF price difference between soybean and palm oil in India has increased. The EU's cumulative palm oil imports in 2026 decreased by 10,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils and fats decreased by 40,000 tons [13][14] - Base - spread data: The palm oil (South China) basis to the 05 contract is - 50, and the soybean oil (Jiangsu) basis has strengthened oscillatory [13]