铁矿石周度观点-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to decline, but there is still support from the macro - level. As the enthusiasm for chasing commodity prices fades and profit - taking accelerates, the iron ore price has fallen from its high. However, the macro - level expectations and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may provide some support, and investors should be wary of upward price drivers that deviate from fundamentals [3][5] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas overall iron ore shipments are at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments have declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, showing a moderately weak performance. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil to China have been continuously falling recently [5] - The four major mainstream mines' shipments at the beginning of the year are moderately strong. For example, Vale's global shipments have increased by 19.0% year - to - date [4] - After months, Ukraine has resumed overseas shipments. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has rebounded, driving the overall operation of domestic mines to improve [20][28] 3.2 Demand - The blast furnace operation rate has decreased month - on - month but remains relatively high compared to the same period last year. The pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from downstream industries may support the molten iron production to some extent [5][31] - The substitution effect of scrap steel is limited. The price of iron ore has only a limited decline, and the scrap - iron price difference has rebounded slightly from a low level, but the overall level is still around zero [32] 3.3 Macro - level - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re - loan and re - discount rates, reigniting the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, there is still some support for the valuation of domestic risk assets [5] 3.4 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 05 contract has weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 812.00 yuan/ton. The position is 648,900 lots, an increase of 9,000 lots week - on - week. The average daily trading volume is 266,200 lots, a decrease of 75,100 lots week - on - week [7] 3.5 Spot Price Performance - The price of medium - grade iron ore remains relatively firm with a small decline. For example, the price of PB powder (61.5%) has decreased by 7 yuan/ton week - on - week [11] 3.6 Inventory - There is an obvious differentiation between port inventory and steel mill raw material inventory. Structurally, the powder ore inventory is significantly high [36][38] 3.7 Downstream Profit - The decline in raw material futures prices has helped to repair the on - paper profit. For example, the spot profit of hot - rolled coils and the on - paper profit of screw steel and coil steel have shown certain changes [40] 3.8 Spot Category Price Difference - The upward momentum of imported medium - grade powder ore has weakened, and the price difference between domestic iron ore concentrate and PB powder has rebounded from a low level [42] 3.9 Futures Month - to - Month Spread - During the recent price decline, the price of the near - month main contract has fallen more, and the 5 - 9 spread has continued to narrow compared to last year [44] 3.10 Basis Performance - With the decline in futures prices, the basis has strengthened slightly month - on - month [45]