豆粕：靴子落地，价格或有反弹，豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面反弹震荡

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Next week (January 19 - 23, 2026), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures may rebound. For soybean meal, the bearish impact of the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations has been priced in. After these factors are digested and with no further negative news, the price of soybean meal is expected to rebound from low levels. For soybean No. 1, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Performance Last Week (January 12 - 16, 2026) - US soybean futures prices first declined and then rose. The decline was due to the bearish USDA report, and the rise was due to Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (as the US may set the 2026 biofuel blending quota in March). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main US soybean contract for March 2026 fell 0.61%, and the main US soybean meal contract for March 2026 fell 4.58% [2]. - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, and soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated. For soybean meal, it was affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. For soybean No. 1, it was influenced by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly strong spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main soybean meal contract m2605 fell 2.12%, and the main soybean No. 1 contract a2605 fell 1.23% [2]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week - Chinese Purchases: China continued to purchase US soybeans, which was a positive factor. From January 12 to 16, the total number of large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations was about 1.4 million tons (mostly for delivery in 2025/26 and a few for 2026/27). For example, on January 13, 168,000 tons were sold to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico; on January 14, 334,000 tons were sold to China; on January 15, 204,000 tons were sold to China and 545,000 tons to unknown destinations [2]. - US Soybean Export Sales: In the week of January 8, 2026, US soybean net sales increased month - on - month, which was a moderately positive factor. In terms of shipments, in the 2025/26 season, US soybean exports were about 1.64 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative exports in the 2025/26 season were about 17.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. In terms of sales, the weekly net sales of the current season (2025/26) were about 2.06 million tons (880,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales of the next season (2026/27) were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (880,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current season (2025/26) were about 1.22 million tons (470,000 tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - Brazilian Soybean Import Cost: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which was a negative factor. As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - USDA Reports: The January USDA reports were bearish. The ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season were raised, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. As of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. The inventory data in both USDA reports were higher than expected, having a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - South American Weather Forecast: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 is a positive factor and should be closely monitored [2][4]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Last Week - Trading Volume: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, and more long - term basis contracts were traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at major oil mills in China was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - Pick - up Volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal at major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal at major oil mills in China was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [5]. - Crushing Volume: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [5]. - Imported Soybean Auction: All the imported soybeans in the auction were sold. On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were successfully sold at an average price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [5]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market Last Week - Soybean Price: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean soybeans passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In some parts of Inner - Pass regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans (the mainstream retail price of medium - grade packaged "tower - selected" Northeast soybeans) was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [6]. - Farmer and Trader Behavior: Farmers in the Northeast产区 were reluctant to sell, and the market was cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expected prices to rise and asked for higher prices. Except for a few traders with orders who continued to purchase, most traders were cautious in purchasing and consumed their inventories, resulting in slow sales to the market. High prices restricted trading, and there was a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets [6]. - Sales Area Situation: The soybean price in the sales areas increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance was low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, leading to an increase in the arrival cost and a corresponding adjustment in the selling price. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which restricted the overall trading speed in the market [6].