生猪：累库持续，供需双增印证将至

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot market for live pigs showed a strong - running trend, with prices of 20KG piglets in Henan at 23.2 yuan/kg, live pigs in Henan at 13.18 yuan/kg, and 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1559 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to the non -放量 of group enterprises and strong reluctance to sell among northern and southern retail farmers. The demand side saw stable slaughter volume despite losses during the peak slaughter season. The average national slaughter weight was 124.58KG, a 0.16% increase from last week. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the LH2603 contract closing at 11980 yuan/ton, and the basis at 1080 yuan/ton [1]. - Next week (1.19 - 1.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Since late December, the enthusiasm for slaughter among enterprises and the social side has been insufficient, and secondary fattening has re - entered the market, starting social inventory accumulation. However, the downstream white - strip market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the slaughter end is in the red. From the supply perspective, standard pig supply will continue to increase until April 2026, but due to strong market expectations and multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, the inventory supply pressure has not been effectively released. From the demand perspective, the late Spring Festival and strong pre - holiday peak - season expectations have led to pre - emptive speculative demand in January. Overall, inventory accumulation continues in mid - and early January, and the weight - reduction plan is postponed, indicating that the social side has not relieved the pressure, and a stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is awaited [2]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11980 yuan/ton on January 16. In mid - and early January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, the weight increased, secondary fattening entered the market, and inventory accumulation restarted. The downstream losses during the peak season significantly inhibited the increase in slaughter volume. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is approaching. Wait for the spot market on the Laba Festival for confirmation. If the weight reduction at the end of the month fails to meet expectations, pay attention to the trading of post - holiday off - season expectations and set stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week's basis was 1080 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.58KG (last week: 124.38KG). In November, pork production was 546 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease; pork imports were 6.05 million tons, a 14.16% month - on - month decrease [10]. 3.3 Demand No specific demand - related summary content other than the description in the market outlook section.