聚酯数据周报-20260118

Report Summary 1. Overall Investment Outlook - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest product in the polyester industry chain [15] 2. Core Views - PX: After a negative feedback cycle, PX processing fees have reached a reasonable level, and the pressure on short - selling has eased. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 positive spread and the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3] - PTA: It is expected to enter a pattern of declining demand. The downside space for the unilateral price is limited, and attention should be paid to the position of narrowing the processing fees [4] - MEG: In the medium - term, it will be in a volatile market with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the basis and spread increasing [5] 3. Summary by Product PX - Valuation and Profit - The PXN spread is at $326/ton (-$18), and the PX - MX spread is $145/ton. The internal - external spread arbitrage space has narrowed, and the 3 - 5 spread has rebounded from the bottom [3][23] - The gasoline inventory has been rising, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy has declined [32][41] - Supply and Inventory - Domestic PX production is at a high level, with an operating rate of 89.4% (-1.5%). Overseas, the Asian overall load is 80.6% (-0.6%). The import volume in the first quarter is expected to increase [3][63] - In December, the PX inventory was 445 million tons (+6) [90] PTA - Valuation and Profit - The basis and spread have been declining. The PTA processing fee has increased, with the 05 - contract processing fee at 335 yuan/ton (+20) and the spot processing fee at 378 yuan/ton (+59) [96][104] - Supply and Inventory - The PTA operating rate is 76.9% (-1.1%). In November, the PTA export was 360,000 tons, with significant increases in Egypt, Oman, and India [108][112] - The total inventory is at a low level, but the inventory accumulation in February is expected to be significant [127] MEG - Valuation and Profit - The unilateral price has rebounded from the bottom, but the spread structure is still weak. The relative valuation has been decreasing [150][155] - The coal - based device profit is - 295 yuan/ton (-34), and the oil - based device continues to be in a loss situation [157] - Supply and Inventory - The MEG operating rate is 74.4%. The coal - based load is at a high level, and the import volume in 1 - 2 months is expected to decrease [5][160] - The port inventory is at a high level [172] Polyester - Production and Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (-2%). The inventory has increased slightly, but the pressure is not significant [179][187] - Export and Profit - From January to November, the total polyester export was 13.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The long - filament factory's loss has been repaired, and the profits of short - fiber and bottle - chip are acceptable [191][193] Terminal (Weaving and Textile) - Domestic Market - The domestic textile and clothing retail sales from January to November were 1359.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [223] - The weaving industry has a poor new order atmosphere, but there are sporadic improvements in some markets. The domestic demand orders are weakening, and the raw material inventory is increasing [215][219] - Overseas Market - The overseas textile and clothing retail data in the US and Europe are strongly rising. The US clothing and fabric inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [233][239]