国泰君安期货能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20260118

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range in the short term. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited [2][4][5]. - The upward trend of butadiene prices is expected to slow down. Although the short - term absolute price is relatively low, which stimulates downstream replenishment and the prices in Asia and Europe are relatively strong, the spot market trading is weakening [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to shut down, while the load of some butadiene rubber plants increased. The production capacity utilization rate remained at an absolute high level. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [5]. - The domestic butadiene rubber plants are expected to have limited changes in the next cycle [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the output of tire enterprises increased week - on - week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to increased foreign trade orders, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises was restricted by inventory control [5]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is gradually narrowing, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. Both sample production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,600 - 12,100 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR price difference support [5]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral trading: The price will fluctuate at a high level, with the upper pressure at 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (dynamically rising following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support at 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (supported by NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety trading: The price difference between NR - BR is gradually narrowing [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - The estimated weekly production of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in the current cycle (January 9 - 15, 2026) was 110,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70%. It is expected to increase slightly to about 113,000 tons next week [6]. - Butadiene production capacity is in a continuous expansion state to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed is slightly faster than that of downstream industries in stages [13][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [8]. - ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand [8]. - The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at the rigid demand level with little change [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (January 8 - 14, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory increased slightly, with the total sample inventory increasing by 1.93% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.05% week - on - week, while the sample port inventory increased by 7.99% week - on - week [8]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - Short - term low absolute prices drive downstream phased replenishment, and the trading situation has improved. Overall, butadiene remains relatively strong in the short term, but the upward trend is expected to slow down due to the weakening of spot market trading [6].