能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. Short - term factors include forward premium, inventory pressure, and off - season influence. Mid - term bullish drivers are anti - deflation, anti - involution policies, and potential production cuts in the glass industry. However, high forward premium, high inventory, and supply contraction factors also exist. The price is expected to fluctuate between the upward drive of production cut expectations and the downward pressure of weak demand and weak basis [4][6]. - Soda Ash: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. The core driving forces of pressure are supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential demand reduction from downstream production cuts. It needs large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry to drive the market. The price is supported by limited downward space and suppressed by long - term supply surplus and potential production cuts in the glass industry [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - Current production capacity is about 150,000 tons per day, with a peak of 178,000 tons per day in 2021. In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons, and that of newly ignited production lines was 15,010 tons. There are also potential new ignition, old - line复产, and cold - repair production lines with certain daily melting volumes. Usually, production cuts are likely to occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter [10][11][15]. Price and Profit - Prices in most regions are stable with little change, but market transactions declined in the second half of the week. The basis strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. Profits for different fuel types are negative, with petroleum coke at about - 7 yuan/ton, natural gas at about - 186 yuan/ton, and coal at about - 74 yuan/ton [19][24][28]. Inventory and Downstream开工 - After New Year's Day, transactions improved and inventory decreased, but transactions declined in the second half of the week. Current inventory is relatively high, and regional arbitrage shows little change in price differences [36][41]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels are stable compared with last week [45][47]. Capacity and Inventory - Market transactions are weak, and inventory in some regions has increased. The sample inventory days are about 38.94 days, a 3.07% decrease from the previous week [49][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some plants have resumed production, and the operating rate is gradually increasing. The overall capacity utilization rate is 86.82%, up 2.43% from last week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.575 million tons, a 0.15% increase from last week and a 10.06% increase year - on - year [2][58][62]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in the Shahe area is 1,140 yuan/ton, and the market price has slightly decreased. Factory ex - factory prices are mostly stable. The basis strengthened as futures prices declined. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [70][73][77].