烧碱：近月压力持续，PVC：偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, both reduced production, but due to the winter maintenance off - season, the overall supply - side production cut was still weak. They will face significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [156]. - Although domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in the red, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. In a low - profit situation, production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive rapid profit repair, but it lacks sustainability for more than 3 months [156]. - On the demand side, caustic soda faces negative feedback from low alumina profits, while PVC faces a persistently weak real - estate demand pattern [157]. - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, with an annual volatility of over 30% in recent years, and its forward futures price between 2150 - 2250 has long - allocation value. PVC, despite significant profit losses, has a forward premium that limits the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors [157]. - In 2026, caustic soda and PVC will mainly experience wide - range oscillations. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited, but it is also difficult to rise continuously before the fundamentals improve substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [157]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Core Contradictions and Export - The market has contradictions between high supply and high inventory, alumina production cut expectations, and slow - down in export growth. The 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali price spread is weak, and there are changes in the delivery area and delivery premium/discount [11]. - The export market still has support but is undergoing structural adjustments. In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The development of wet - process nickel may lead to the large - scale application of the magnesium oxide precipitation process, which may replace caustic soda to some extent [21]. - The FOB price in Northeast Asia has declined, and currently, the Southeast Asian customers have not started new inquiries for spot orders [26]. 3.1.2 Supply - The market structure features rising production and inventory, with high - level operation and high inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more is 86.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [40]. - In January 2026, there were few caustic soda maintenance projects. In 2026, caustic soda production will continue to increase, with a capacity growth rate of over 3% [47][49]. - In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The current liquid chlorine price is in a normal fluctuation range, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [50][54]. 3.1.3 Demand - In the first half of 2026, alumina production will be concentrated, with an expected annual new capacity of 13.9 million tons. However, alumina is currently operating at a high level, with rising inventory and losses, and there are expectations of production cuts [75]. - The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, with continuously compressed terminal profits. The new pulp production capacity continues to be put into operation. The start - up of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries has declined, as well as the water treatment and ternary precursor industries [86][98][100][102]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Core Contradictions and Price Spread - The market has contradictions of high supply, high inventory, weak domestic demand, slow - down in export growth, and a large forward premium in futures [107][110]. - The PVC basis and monthly spread have strengthened [111]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In January 2026, there were fewer PVC maintenance projects, and there will be no new capacity put into operation in 2026 [117][121][123]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants is at a low level but has not reached the cash - flow cost. PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, but the social inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate [125][128]. - The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall start - up of PVC downstream industries has decreased month - on - month. The PVC export expectation has weakened, and the export tax rebate will increase competition pressure. The warehouse receipts are rising and still at a high level [133][139][147][153].