国泰君安期货·能源化工：尿素周度报告-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is a period of sideways consolidation. In the short term, the commodity sentiment has weakened, spot trading has softened, and the futures price has reached a policy - pressured level, leading to a short - term price correction. However, due to the strong expectations of agricultural demand, the correction range is expected to be limited, and the medium - term trend remains bullish [2]. - The fundamentals of urea have seen a phased improvement on the demand side, with continuous procurement from reserves and the grassroots level. The driving force is slightly bullish, and whether the driving force can strengthen further depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking [2]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, mainly a policy - pressure line. The fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton, supported by the strong expectations of the 2026 agricultural demand peak season [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation - The report presents multiple charts related to urea valuation, including basis (e.g., ZhengYuan basis, BoDa basis), monthly spreads (e.g., 5 - 9 monthly spread, 1 - 5 monthly spread), and domestic and international spot prices. These data can help investors understand the price relationships and market trends of urea [5][9][14][18] 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 392 million tons, while in 2025, it reached 664 million tons. For 2026, the expected new capacity is 651 million tons [22]. 3.2.2 Production - From January 8 - 14, 2026, China's urea production was 1.4051 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons or 2.44%. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.4 - 1.41 million tons, with only minor fluctuations. The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output remains at a high level [2][25]. 3.2.3 Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. The report provides a cost calculation table for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi, showing that the cash - flow cost and full cost of urea and synthetic ammonia have certain fluctuations [28]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report presents profit charts for different production processes such as fixed - bed, entrained - flow bed, and natural - gas - based production [33][34] 3.2.5 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. The report provides historical data on monthly and annual net imports (exports) of urea from 2018 - 2025 (E) [38]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions have different demand characteristics according to the crop - planting cycle. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea in corn production [44][47] 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory of compound fertilizers [51][52]. - Melamine: It presents the production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [55][56]. - Real Estate and Wood Products: The real - estate industry's demand for panels provides limited support, but panel exports show resilience [57]. 3.4 Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, China's urea port sample inventory was 134,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons or 4.29%. - As of January 14, 2026, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 986,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,100 tons or 3.53%. Overall, the inventory is expected to enter a phase of sideways consolidation, and the inventory - reduction speed will slow down [2][62] 3.5 International Urea - The report provides price trend charts of international urea, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [66][67][68][69]