燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告：国泰君安期货·能源化工-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent price fluctuations of domestic and international fuel oils have continued to widen, with the up - down trends reversing frequently. High - sulfur fuel oil may return to a weak situation in the short term, but there may still be support at the bottom due to the decline in Russian high - sulfur exports. Low - sulfur fuel oil has some positive factors, and there is support at the bottom, making it difficult to show a significant weakening. The estimated value range for FU is 2400 - 2590, and for LU is 2900 - 3150. In the short term, fuel oil prices enter a high - volatility environment with an unclear direction. The FU and LU monthly spread structures have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after the geopolitical issues cool down. The FU/LU crack spreads have reached a short - term low, and the LU - FU spread will enter a short - term oscillation [4] 3. Summary by Directory Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), and the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking units, CDU units, FCC units, and coking units from 2018 - 2026. It also shows the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 [6][7][8][10][17] Demand - The report provides monthly data on fuel oil demand, including Singapore's bunker sales, China's apparent consumption, and China's actual consumption of marine fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 [22][23][24] Inventory - The report shows the spot inventory data of global fuel oil from 2018 - 2026, including Singapore's heavy oil inventory, Fujeirah's heavy distillate inventory, European ARA fuel oil inventory, and the weekly residual fuel oil inventory in the US [26] Price and Spread - Regional Spot FOB Prices: It presents the spot FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (Singapore, Fujeirah), Europe (Northwest Europe, Mediterranean), and the US (Gulf of Mexico, New York Harbor) from 2018 - 2026 [30][34][38] - Paper and Derivative Prices: It includes the prices of swaps and continuous contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2026, as well as the prices of domestic FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2024 [39][40][43] - Fuel Oil Spot Spreads: It shows the Singapore high - low sulfur spread and the Singapore viscosity spread from 2019 - 2026 [46][49] - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads: It presents the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 [50][52][54] - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads: It shows the month spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and Northwest Europe [59][60][61] Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of Chinese fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) from 2018 - 2025 [64][66] - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It presents the weekly import and export volume changes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 - 2026 [67] - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly import and export volume changes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 - 2026 [69] Futures Disk Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Review: During the week, the fuel oil prices in the Asia - Pacific region fluctuated greatly, and the Zhoushan market moved in sync. The impact of geopolitical issues on the spot price of the outer market gradually subsided, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices gradually repaired as the number of warehouse receipts decreased [72] - Logic: In the short term, due to the cooling of geopolitical events, the strength of the outer - market spot market has declined. At the same time, the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU has started to decrease, and it is expected that the spreads between FU, LU and the Singapore market will increase in the short term [72] FU, LU Position and Trading Volume Changes - The report shows the trading volume and position data of fuel oil main contracts, continuous contracts, and first - month contracts (including high - sulfur and low - sulfur) from 2020 - 2026 [86][88][92] FU, LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - The report shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2026 [99][100][101]