单边行情纠偏，股指行稳致远

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index trends is "Volatility" [4] Core View of the Report - The domestic stock market showed dramatic changes this week. With multiple trading days hitting record high trading volumes, regulatory actions to cool down the market were evident, suppressing stock performance. The stock index opened high and closed low, showing signs of a phased peak. From a capital perspective, ETFs such as the CSI 300 experienced net redemptions, which directly affected index prices. The CSRC's 2026 system work conference emphasized preventing market fluctuations and controlling the market rhythm. Therefore, the long - term slow - bull market pattern remains unchanged, but in the short term, market volatility will increase, and it still needs to accumulate upward momentum [2][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview - Next - week view: The regulatory measures are cooling down the market, leading to increased stock market volatility. The long - term slow - bull pattern remains, but short - term market shocks will intensify, and it needs to accumulate upward momentum [2][10] - This - week key event focus: - On January 12th, four departments jointly issued regulations on the operation of government investment funds, and the NDRC introduced evaluation and management methods for fund investment directions, supporting the cultivation of emerging and future industries [11] - On January 14th, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges raised the margin ratio for margin trading to 100%; three departments issued tax incentives for home - buying replacement; China's December exports and imports both exceeded expectations [12][13][14] - On January 15th, the central bank implemented a 25BP structural interest rate cut, increased various re - loan quotas, and adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans; at the end of 2025, China's social financing increased by 8.3% year - on - year [15][16] - On January 16th, the CSRC emphasized counter - cyclical adjustment to prevent market fluctuations; China and Canada reached a series of economic and trade agreements; the State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote consumption [17][18][19] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - Global stock market weekly overview: From January 12th to 16th, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.33%, with emerging markets (+2.25%) > frontier markets (+0.89%) > developed markets (+0.09%). The South Korean stock market rose 4.29%, outperforming the world, while the French stock market fell 1.47%, the worst - performing globally [1][21] - Chinese stock market weekly overview: From January 12th to 16th, most Chinese equity assets rose, with Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 34653 billion yuan, an increase of 6131 billion yuan compared to last week. A - share broad - based indices were divided, with the STAR 50 Index rising 2.58% and the SSE 50 Index falling 1.74% [1][24] - Weekly overview of GICS primary industries in Chinese and foreign stock markets: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with real estate leading (+3.53%) and consumer discretionary falling the most (-1.39%). In the Chinese market, information technology had the largest increase (+3.37%), and real estate lagged (-3.66%) [27] - Weekly overview of China's A - share CITIC primary industries: Among China's A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 10 rose (28 last week) and 20 fell (2 last week). The computer industry had the largest increase (+4.31%), and the national defense and military industry fell the most (-5.66%) [1][29] - Weekly overview of China's A - share styles: Small - cap growth stocks outperformed this week [33] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - Broad - based index valuation: The report provides PE and PB data for various broad - based indices this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes, as well as the eight - year percentile [43] - Primary industry valuation: The report provides PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes, as well as the eight - year percentile [44] - Broad - based index equity risk premium: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [45][49] - Consensus expected earnings growth rate of broad - based indices: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.64% and in 2026 to 9.32%; for the CSI 500, it was adjusted down to 26.39% in 2025 and up to 22.70% in 2026; for the CSI 1000, it was adjusted down to 28.29% in 2025 and up to 23.27% in 2026 [51] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - Interest rates and exchange rates: This week, the 10Y and 1Y interest rates declined, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 99, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.96 [60] - Trading - type capital tracking: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 740 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 981 billion yuan [59] - Tracking of funds flowing in through ETFs: There are 30 on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 40 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 21.4 billion, those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 1.7 billion, those tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 2.7 billion, and those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 7.7 billion [62][63][65] 5. Tracking of China's Macro High - Frequency Data - Supply side: Tire production rates recovered after the Spring Festival [68] - Consumption side: Second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally [77] - Inflation observation: Producer prices rebounded, while agricultural product prices adjusted [88]