财通证券日本低通胀破局

Group 1: Inflation Dynamics - Japan's inflation has risen above the 2% policy target since 2021, breaking a long-term stagnation and moving towards normalization of monetary policy[9] - The initial inflation surge was driven by external factors, particularly energy prices, which saw a nominal price index increase of over 400% from April 2020 to June 2022[23] - Core CPI and service CPI have shown significant upward trends, indicating a shift from external to endogenous inflation drivers[35] Group 2: Wage-Price Interaction - The interaction between wages and prices has strengthened post-pandemic, with nominal wage growth accelerating since 2022, reaching a 5.25% increase in 2025, the highest in 34 years[42] - The transmission effect of wages on prices is evident, as companies raise prices to maintain profit margins in response to rising labor costs[44] - Despite nominal wage increases, real wages remain negative due to higher inflation, limiting consumer confidence and spending[71] Group 3: Labor Market Changes - Japan's labor market has tightened due to demographic pressures, with the effective job openings-to-applicants ratio exceeding 1, indicating a labor shortage[59] - The proportion of non-regular employees has increased, which has somewhat mitigated labor supply issues but has limited wage growth sustainability[63] - Consumer expectations regarding wage stability remain cautious, with nearly 40% of households anticipating no change in future wages[71]