债市反弹动力减弱，暂以震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sustainability and extent of the bond market recovery should not be overestimated. The bond market's rebound momentum will weaken next week, and it will likely show a sideways trend due to cooling stock markets [2][12][14] - The monetary policy environment is not favorable for the bond market. The central bank prefers structural policies, and the probability of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts is low [12][13] - Economic fundamentals at the beginning of the year may be stronger than market expectations. Policies in multiple areas such as currency and real estate are actively driving, and economic data may exceed expectations [13] - There are marginal negatives in terms of funds and supply. Next week, government bond supply will increase, reverse repurchase maturities are large, and January is a big month for tax payments, leading to tightened liquidity [13][14] - Investment strategies include a one - sided strategy of short - term oscillation and long - term bearishness, suggesting short - selling on rallies; a short - hedging strategy, maintaining a certain short - hedging position; and a curve strategy of moderately focusing on steepening the curve, such as going long 3T and short TL [2][15][16][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From January 12th to 18th, treasury bond futures had a weak rebound. Their performance was affected by stock market trends, regulatory actions, and central bank policies. As of January 16th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts were 102.400, 105.805, 108.065, and 111.170 yuan respectively, up 0.062, 0.235, 0.290, and 0.300 yuan from last weekend [1][10] 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - The bond market's rebound momentum will weaken, showing a sideways trend. The reasons include the unfavorable monetary policy environment, the possibility of economic data exceeding expectations, and tightened liquidity [12][13][14] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 44 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 451.591 billion yuan and a net financing of - 192.540 billion yuan, down 311.643 billion and 541.724 billion yuan from last week respectively. 15 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 74.841 billion yuan and a net financing of 65.570 billion yuan, down 42.823 billion and 52.094 billion yuan from last week respectively. 508 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 553.580 billion yuan and a net financing of - 254.880 billion yuan, up 378.520 billion yuan in issuance volume and down 101.580 billion yuan in net financing from last week [18] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of January 16th, the yields of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.61%, 1.84%, and 2.30% respectively, down 3.32, 4.81, 3.62, and 0.70 basis points from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, and the yields of the one - year, five - year, and ten - year policy financial bonds also declined [28][29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures had a weak rebound. As of January 16th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts were 102.400, 105.805, 108.065, and 111.170 yuan respectively, up from last weekend. The trading volumes of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures this week were 36,416, 64,921, 75,626, and 121,759 lots respectively, down from last week. The open interests were 78,854, 161,793, 253,607, and 177,194 lots respectively, with changes compared to last week [36][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The current positive arbitrage strategy opportunities are not obvious. Recommended strategies include a negative duration strategy if expecting a large bond market correction and a long - old bond and short - futures, duration - neutral arbitrage strategy in the short - term [44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of January 16th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2603 - 2606 contracts of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures were - 0.032, - 0.020, + 0.060, and - 0.100 yuan respectively, with changes compared to last weekend [50] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Fundamentals - This week, the central bank conducted 951.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 138.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, achieving a net injection of 812.8 billion yuan. There were 600 billion yuan in term reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan in term reverse repurchase operations. As of January 16th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates changed compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of the inter - bank pledged repurchase increased compared to last week [52][53][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of January 16th, the US dollar index rose 0.23% from last weekend to 99.3691, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.24%, and the 10Y China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 239.5 basis points [59][60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed trends, while agricultural product prices all rose. As of January 16th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemicals Index changed compared to last weekend, and the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also increased [63] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to be sideways in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies [64]