2025年负增长后，2026年进口煤量何去何从？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal sector [10] Core Insights - In 2025, China's total coal and lignite imports reached 490 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% (52.43 million tons), marking the second year of negative growth in the past decade, excluding 2022. The outlook for 2026 suggests that coal imports are likely to decrease due to rising domestic coal prices, supply disruptions, and increasing costs [2][7] - The coal price is expected to remain stable in the short term, supported by seasonal demand and cost factors, despite high inventory levels limiting price increases. The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply changes and inventory replenishment rates [6][25] Summary by Sections Import Data and Trends - In 2025, coal imports from major countries showed varying trends: Indonesia (-15%), Russia (-9%), Mongolia (+5%), and Australia (-8%). The average price difference for Australian coal was negative 25 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper price inversion compared to 2024 [7][18] - The report anticipates a contraction in coal supply from major exporting countries in 2026, particularly from Indonesia, where production quotas may be reduced to around 600 million tons, down from 790 million tons in 2025 [7][8] Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 3.12%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.55 percentage points. The report notes that the thermal coal market price as of January 16 was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton week-on-week [6][25] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the coal sector, emphasizing companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned for growth amid inflationary pressures [8] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of January 15, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 6.3 million tons, with a slight year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The report indicates that power plant inventories have decreased, suggesting a tightening supply situation [25][44] - The report highlights that the supply of coking coal is stabilizing, with an increase in production capacity utilization rates, while the demand from steel mills remains steady [26][53]