Guohai Securities·2026-01-18 10:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment is mixed, with domestic policies aimed at boosting demand and liquidity, while external factors like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook are causing caution in the market [7]. - The aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, driven by high prices and reduced downstream purchasing willingness [8]. - Long-term prospects for the aluminum industry remain positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, leading to a sustained high level of industry activity [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 16, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,134.0 per ton, down $2.0 from the previous week but up $530.0 year-on-year, reflecting a 20.4% increase [25]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 23,925.0 CNY per ton, down 405.0 CNY week-on-week but up 3,740.0 CNY year-on-year, indicating an 18.5% increase [25]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 24,000.0 CNY per ton, down 60.0 CNY week-on-week but up 4,040.0 CNY year-on-year, a 20.2% increase [25]. 2. Production - In December 2025, the aluminum production reached 3.781 million tons, an increase of 144,000 tons month-on-month and 197,000 tons year-on-year, marking a 5.5% increase [55]. - The alumina production for December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, up 80,000 tons month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year [55]. 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.77 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 11.4 [6]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.28 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.1 [6]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.56 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 12.2 [6]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.92 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.4 [6]. - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.07 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 15.7 [6].