周观：结构性降息后，债市将如何表现？（2026年第3期）

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2026.1.12 - 2026.1.16), the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 4.3bp from 1.886% last Friday to 1.843% this Friday. The bond market recovered due to the increase in the entry sentiment of allocation disks, the moderation of the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the central bank's support for liquidity. Structural interest rate cuts are beneficial for precise policy implementation, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, with the former likely to occur earlier [1][11][16]. - Overseas, gold continued to rise this week. In the medium - and long - term, considering the global geopolitical situation and the unchanged structure of fiscal policy and monetary policy, the view of bullishness on gold remains. Attention should be paid to the crowding - out effect of the AI strong capital cycle on traditional sectors, and look for structural allocation opportunities by combining price and volume [2]. - For the US economic data, the initial jobless claims decreased in the short - term while the continued claims remained at a high level, the trade deficit narrowed, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 4.4%, indicating a low likelihood of a rate cut [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week Viewpoints - Analysis of Yield Changes in the 10 - Year Active Treasury Bond: The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 4.3bp this week. The daily fluctuations were affected by factors such as fiscal policies, central bank operations, stock market trends, and economic data releases [1][11][12]. - Reasons for Bond Market Recovery: The bond market recovered because the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond reached 1.9%, leading to an increase in the entry sentiment of allocation disks; the over - heating of the stock market was regulated, making the stock - bond seesaw effect more moderate; the central bank's over - renewal of repurchase agreements and structural interest rate cuts indicated support for liquidity [15][16]. - Understanding of Structural Interest Rate Cuts and "Room for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts This Year": Structural interest rate cuts can precisely meet the financing needs of the real economy and avoid excessive liquidity. To stabilize the net interest margin of banks, measures such as waiting for the maturity of high - interest deposits, structural interest rate cuts, and reserve requirement ratio cuts can be taken. Reserve requirement ratio cuts are likely to come earlier than interest rate cuts [17]. - Outlook for Next Week: The release of the 2025 annual economic data is expected to provide limited incremental information. Next week, attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market on the bond market. Even if the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the first quarter intensifies, the downward pressure on interest rates may be limited [18]. - Analysis of US Economic Data and Bond Yields: Gold continued to rise overseas. In the short - term, the path of interest rate cuts is disordered, and in the medium - and long - term, due to the geopolitical situation, the view of bullishness on gold remains. For the US economic data, the initial jobless claims decreased while the continued claims remained high, the trade deficit narrowed, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low [2][23][26]. 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 2.1. Liquidity Tracking - Open - Market Operations: From 2026/1/12 to 2026/1/16, the total net investment through open - market operations was 8128 billion yuan, mainly through reverse repurchase operations [35]. - Interest Rate Changes: The money market interest rates showed certain changes, and the yields of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and other bonds also changed to varying degrees [40][48]. 2.2. Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity Prices: The prices of steel products generally increased, while the official futures prices of LME non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends. The prices of coal, oil, and other commodities also fluctuated [61][71]. - Stock Market and Other Market Indexes: In the period from 2026/1/12 to 2026/1/16, copper led the rise, and the VIX panic index led the decline. The Shanghai Composite Index also showed an upward trend [74][77]. 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1. Primary Market Issuance Overview - Issuance Scale and Structure: This week, 15 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 748.41 billion yuan, including 520.85 billion yuan of refinancing bonds and 227.56 billion yuan of new special bonds. The net financing amount was 655.70 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive, strategic development, and shantytown renovation projects [89]. - Issuing Regions: Four provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds this week, namely Liaoning, Ningbo, Hubei, and Hunan. Three provinces and municipalities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 388.76 billion yuan [92][93]. - Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds: The total scale of early redemption of urban investment bonds this week was 13.00 billion yuan, involving Chongqing, Xinjiang, and Jiangxi [98]. 3.2. Secondary Market Overview - Trading Volume and Turnover Rate: The stock of local government bonds this week was 54.80 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 3547.12 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.65%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Shandong, Hubei, and Zhejiang, and the top three active trading terms were 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y [101]. - Yield Changes: The yields of local government bonds generally declined this week [107]. 3.3. This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan The issuance plans of local government bonds for some provinces and municipalities in January 2026 are provided, including Zhejiang, Gansu, Fujian, Guizhou, and Sichuan [108]. 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1. Primary Market Issuance Overview - Total Issuance and Net Financing: This week, 334 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 2882.43 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 2482.55 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 399.88 billion yuan, which decreased by 911.61 billion yuan compared with last week [110]. - Issuance by Bond Type: Urban investment bonds had a net financing deficit of 353.99 billion yuan, while industrial bonds had a net financing surplus of 753.88 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing of 293.68 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing of - 86.56 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing of - 69.92 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing of 353.18 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing of - 90.45 billion yuan [111][116]. 4.2. Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week showed different changes. The issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds decreased by 4.25bp, that of medium - term notes decreased by 14.60bp, that of enterprise bonds decreased by 8.00bp, and that of corporate bonds increased by 6.10bp [125]. 4.3. Secondary Market Trading Overview - Trading Volume by Bond Type: The total trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market this week was 6101.17 billion yuan. Among them, the trading volume of medium - term notes was the largest, followed by short - term financing bonds, corporate bonds, private placement notes, and enterprise bonds [127]. 4.4. Yield to Maturity The yields of various bonds generally showed a downward trend this week, including national development bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds [128][129][131]. 4.5. Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [134][138][142]. 4.6. Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds also showed different trends, with the rating spreads of enterprise bonds generally narrowing and those of urban investment bonds generally widening [144][148][152]. 4.7. Trading Activity - Top Five Active Bonds by Bond Type: The report lists the top five most actively traded bonds for each type of credit bond this week [158]. - Industry Trading Volume: The industrial industry had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and optional consumption [158]. 4.8. Subject Rating Changes There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks this week [159].