棕榈油:消息面加剧波动,驱动持续性存疑,豆油:美豆动能不足,区间震荡为主,豆粕:靴子落地,价格或有反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-18 10:39

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Views - Palm oil is in a relatively high position in the bottom - range oscillation. There are uncertainties in the long - term direction, and short - term operations are recommended. A clearer buying opportunity is expected in February - March [5][7]. - Soybean oil is expected to run in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the theme resonance in the first quarter [8][9]. - Soybean meal prices may rebound after the negative factors have been digested [18][24]. - Soybean No. 1's spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price may rebound and oscillate [19][24]. - Corn is expected to be oscillating strongly [38][43]. - Sugar is in a low - level consolidation phase both internationally and domestically [61][63][88]. - Cotton is continuing its adjustment trend, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillating strongly [89][104]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, and the futures market is approaching the stage of double - increase in supply and demand [105][107]. - Peanuts are in a weak oscillation, and the futures are short - term weak. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [123][124]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - Last week's view and logic: The news affected the palm oil market, causing strong fluctuations. The 05 contract rose 0.35% weekly. The lack of South American weather speculation limited the upward drive of US soybeans, and soybean oil followed the oil and fat sector to oscillate in a range, with the 05 contract rising 0.58% weekly [4]. - This week's view and logic: MPOB's December data showed an inventory increase. In January, the inventory is expected to decline. However, the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy and other factors make the long - term direction unclear. The market is in a bottom - range oscillation, and short - term operations are advisable [5][7]. Soybean Oil - Last week's view and logic: Lack of South American weather speculation limited the upward drive of US soybeans, and soybean oil followed the oil and fat sector to oscillate in a range, with the 05 contract rising 0.58% weekly [4]. - This week's view and logic: The US biodiesel policy may increase the demand for US soybean oil, but the upward space still needs to be carefully evaluated. US soybeans are expected to oscillate and stabilize in January. Domestic soybean oil may continue the de - stocking process until March - April [8]. Soybean Meal - Last week's situation: US soybean futures first fell and then rose. Domestic soybean meal futures were weak, and soybean No. 1 futures oscillated. The 1 - month USDA report was bearish, but there were also positive factors such as Chinese procurement [19]. - Next week's prediction: After the negative factors have been digested, soybean meal prices may rebound [24]. Soybean No. 1 - Last week's situation: Domestic soybean No. 1 futures oscillated. The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, but the market was affected by the bearish atmosphere of the soybean market [19]. - Next week's prediction: The futures price may rebound and oscillate, and it should pay attention to the sentiment of the soybean market [24]. Corn - Market review: In the week of January 16, the spot price of corn rose, and the futures market also increased. The CBOT corn fell, wheat prices were stable with reduced auctions, and corn starch inventory decreased [38][39][40][41][42]. - Market outlook: Corn is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the price callback space before the Spring Festival is limited [43]. Sugar - This week's market review: Internationally, the New York raw sugar price increased slightly, and the net long position of funds increased. Domestically, the spot price was stable, and the futures price fell slightly. The production of major sugar - producing countries showed different trends [61][62]. - Next week's market outlook: Internationally and domestically, sugar is in a low - level consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to the production and export rhythm of Brazil, the production and policies of India, and domestic import policies [63][88]. Cotton - Market situation: ICE cotton first rose and then fell. Domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [89]. - Operation suggestion: USDA's adjustment of cotton data strengthened the support of ICE cotton, but it still lacks fundamental drive. Domestic cotton is expected to wait for the determination of phased support after the Spring Festival [104]. Hogs - This week's market review: The spot price of hogs was strong, and the futures price oscillated strongly. The supply was tight, and the demand was stable [105]. - Next week's market outlook: Hog prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. The market is approaching the stage of double - increase in supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the spot price confirmation around the Laba Festival [106][107]. Peanuts - Market review: The spot price of peanuts was stable, and the futures price fell. The supply was expected to be abundant, and the terminal consumption was insufficient [123]. - Market outlook: The spot market is in a pattern of "peak season without prosperity". The futures are short - term weak, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival and the changes in oil mill acquisition strategies and imported peanut arrivals [124].

棕榈油:消息面加剧波动,驱动持续性存疑,豆油:美豆动能不足,区间震荡为主,豆粕:靴子落地,价格或有反弹 - Reportify