几内亚铝土矿价格偏弱，国内氧化铝供给持稳

Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Volatility [1] Core Views - The price of bauxite in Guinea is weak, and the supply of domestic alumina remains stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply cycle, and after a phased rebound, the market is expected to return to a weak pattern. [1][2][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Last week, domestic ore prices were stable. The delivered ex - tax price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi dropped to 665 yuan. There was less market - flowing ore and tight spot supply. A new CIF transaction of low - grade bauxite from Guinea was recorded at 60 US dollars per dry ton, equivalent to 63 - 64 US dollars per dry ton for 45/3 standard grade. Newly arrived ore was 4.599 million tons, including 3.846 million tons from Guinea and 0.553 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China was 20 US dollars per ton. [2][12] - Alumina: Last week, the spot price of alumina declined. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2600 - 2640 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2627.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34.1 yuan per ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 2700 - 2740 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week. The alumina futures price fell from a high. The domestic full - cost of alumina was 2642 yuan per ton, and the real - time profit was 61 yuan per ton. The total supply remained stable with both maintenance and restarts. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.25 million tons in operation, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 84%. [3][13] - Demand: Domestically, the new capacity of the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomeihongjun Zhala Aluminum continued to be put into production, and the company's overall operating capacity increased to 900,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Overseas, the electrolytic aluminum project of Angola Huatong Industrial Co., Ltd. was put into production on January 15th, with a total built - in capacity of 120,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.838 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons. [13] - Inventory: As of January 15th, the national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week. The growth of alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum enterprises slowed down, and the inventory in alumina enterprises increased slightly, mainly in medium - sized alumina enterprises without industrial chain support. Port inventory increased due to unloaded and unshipped vessels. Near the Spring Festival, the operation level and inventory reserve willingness of non - aluminum industries decreased, and the fine alumina inventory outside the scope was accumulating. [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 176,802 tons, an increase of 17,160 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price fluctuated. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises were still not determined to cut production, the industry remained in an oversupply situation, and inventory continued to accumulate. [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - Alumina Theoretical Northern Import Loss: As of January 16th, the Australian alumina quotation was about 308 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars from January 9th. The theoretical cost of reaching the northern ports of China was about 2682 yuan per ton, and the theoretical northern import loss was about 62 yuan per ton. [16] - Indonesian Bauxite Policy and Alumina Market Dynamics: From 2024 - 2025, the RKAB quota of Indonesian bauxite gradually tightened, from 15.87 million tons in 2024 to 12 - 15 million tons in 2025. In contrast, the local alumina production capacity in Indonesia increased to 6 million tons, with an increase of 3 million tons in 2025 alone. [16] - Alumina Market Operation and Trading: Recently, the alumina operation level remained above 95 million tons, but the restart and maintenance of roasting furnaces in different enterprises were still going on. At the beginning of this week, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi resumed full - production after maintenance, while a roasting furnace of an alumina enterprise in Henan started maintenance on January 13th and was expected to resume production on January 18th, with limited overall output fluctuations. [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and domestic alumina production costs in each province, with data sources mainly from Shanghai Steel Union and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [17][19][24] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows data on domestic alumina spot prices in each province, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina, with data sources from Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [31][33][35] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with data sources mainly from Aladdin, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [42][47][50]