黑色金属周报合集-20260118

Report Summary Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Views - Steel: Steel prices are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the upward trend should wait for a breakthrough. The macro - environment is generally favorable, but the fundamentals show a pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products, with steel mill profits continuing to compress. The upward drive depends on cost - push factors, while the downward drive comes from the accumulation of contradictions in the steel industry chain after复产 [6][8]. - Iron Ore: Ore prices are returning downward, but there is still macro - support. Overseas supply is at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments are weak. Demand is supported by pre - Spring Festival restocking, and there is a risk of upward drive deviating from the fundamentals [77][79]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Driven by events and valuation repair, the rhythm is more important than the trend. The supply - demand structure is subtly changing, and coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level volatile pattern. The contradiction between supply and demand is still accumulating [127]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply rhythm. The alloy prices are oscillating, and the cost and demand sides have different impacts on silicon iron and manganese silicon [214][216]. - Steam Coal: The short - term market is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather. The supply is stable currently but may shrink before the Spring Festival, demand may be boosted by cold air, and inventory at northern ports is high [291][292]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly View - Logic: Steel prices are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the upward trend should wait for a breakthrough [6]. - Macro - aspect: The domestic macro - environment is generally favorable, with the central economic work conference re - emphasizing "anti - involution" and the improvement and stabilization of the real estate market expectation [8][11]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the rebound of the disk price. Steel mill profits continue to compress. Technically, black chain indexes and related contracts face previous high pressure [8]. - Upward Drive: The upward breakthrough of black commodities depends on cost - push factors, such as policy - restricted coal supply contraction and sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply end [8]. - Downward Drive: The accumulation of contradictions in the steel industry chain after复产 and the release of high - inventory liquidity in iron ore may lead to a decline [8]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly View - Supply: Overseas overall shipments are at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments are weak both year - on - year and month - on - month. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil to China are falling [78][79]. - Demand: The blast furnace start - up rate has decreased month - on - month but is still relatively high year - on - year. Pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may support iron ore demand [79]. - Macro - level: The central bank's decision to cut re - loan and re - discount rates has rekindled market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing some support for short - term domestic risk asset valuations [79]. - Contract Performance: The main 05 contract price has weakened oscillatingly, with an increase in positions and a decrease in trading volume [83]. - Spot Price: The prices of medium - grade goods are relatively firm, with small declines [85]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke View - Supply: Domestic coal mine production has returned to normal, with smooth shipments. Import volume has increased, and the inventory in the regulatory area is being depleted [125]. - Demand: Coke has started the first round of price increases. The iron ore demand is supported by the raw material rigid demand, and iron ore is expected to rise again after the end of maintenance [128]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory has increased month - on - month, and the inventory has begun to transfer downstream [128]. - View Summary: Driven by events and valuation repair, the supply - demand structure is subtly changing, and coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [127]. 4. Ferroalloys Weekly View - Price Movement: The alloy prices are oscillating, and the disk center of gravity has moved down further. The cost side may support the disk to maintain an oscillating pattern [216]. - Macro: The central bank has clarified its key work in 2026, and there is no significant overseas news [216]. - Micro: The iron ore output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the demand for raw materials is weakly supported [216]. - Fundamentals: For silicon iron, the cost has decreased, and the explicit inventory has decreased. For manganese silicon, the cost is supported, but the supply expansion plan in the north and the accumulation of inventory suppress the price [216]. 5. Steam Coal - Supply: Currently, coal mines are producing normally, and supply is stable. However, supply may shrink before the Spring Festival. In 2025, the national coal production and import had certain changes, and the coal production increment may narrow in 2026 [291]. - Demand: The cold air will strengthen in the next 10 days, which may boost daily consumption. Currently, the power plant's daily consumption has declined, and the market is only making sporadic purchases [291]. - Inventory: The sentiment at northern ports is weak, and the port inventory has increased due to wind - induced navigation closures. It may decline slightly later [292]. - Main Logic: The short - term coal price may be oscillatingly weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather [292]. - Outlook: The impact of nuclear - reducing production capacity is unclear, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and terminal restocking [292].