华源晨会精粹20260118-20260118

Group 1: Metal New Materials - Copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations, with LME and COMEX arbitrage space narrowing [8][9] - Aluminum prices are also anticipated to face high-level fluctuations, driven by inventory accumulation and the impact of delayed tariff expectations [9] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with carbonate lithium prices entering an upward cycle, while cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [10][11] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been rising, attributed to weak U.S. employment data and changes in margin requirements for precious metal contracts, which may increase market volatility [13][14] - The geopolitical situation, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the upward momentum in precious metals [14][15] - China's gold reserves increased to 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025, reflecting ongoing central bank purchases that support gold prices [18] Group 3: North Exchange Market - The North Exchange has begun disclosing 2025 earnings, with Lin Tai New Materials and Hai Neng Technology forecasting significant profit increases, indicating a positive market outlook [19][20] - The market is expected to maintain liquidity, with structural investment opportunities arising from the technology sector and a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations [20] - Key investment directions include companies with expected earnings growth, those in the service consumption sector, and firms in the new energy vehicle export chain benefiting from reduced tariffs [20] Group 4: New Consumption - Chao Hong Ji anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, driven by store expansion and improved brand strength, with a projected profit range of 436 to 533 million yuan [22][23] - The approval of a new medical device by Juzi Biotechnology marks a significant milestone, indicating growth potential in the healthcare sector [23] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding new consumer trends and suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands in various sectors [24][25]