有色金属周报：金属战略资源属性抬升，关注长期配置机会-20260118

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][58]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: As of January 16, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4601.1 per ounce, a month-on-month increase of 1.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.0% to 1086 tons. The U.S. non-farm employment is expected to increase by 50,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit are expected to support gold prices in the long term [4]. - Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum prices experienced a short-term adjustment after a rise. As of January 16, the SHFE copper futures contract fell by 0.63% to 100,770 yuan per ton, while aluminum fell by 1.7% to 23,925 yuan per ton. The tightening supply expectations for copper and the supportive macro environment suggest a potential upward revaluation of copper prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of January 16, 2026, the nonferrous metal index closed at 10,530.11 points, a month-on-month increase of 3.9%. The precious metal index rose by 6.9%, the industrial metal index by 2.8%, and the energy metal index by 2.7%. In contrast, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.57% [10]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - The gold price is expected to continue its upward trend due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the weakening dollar credit, enhancing its safe-haven appeal [4][57]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - The domestic copper social inventory reached 320,900 tons as of January 15, with LME copper inventory at 143,600 tons. The tightening supply expectations and the agreement between Rio Tinto and Amazon for copper supply for AI data centers highlight the increasing competition for copper resources [6][7]. 3.2 Aluminum - Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 736,000 tons as of January 15, with LME aluminum inventory at 488,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain high [6]. 3.3 Tin - The SHFE tin futures contract rose by 14.9% to 405,000 yuan per ton as of January 16, driven by supply concerns from the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum. For aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as a potential investment [7][55].