多晶硅：下周二市场情绪或有提振：工业硅：下游减产，反弹逢高布空

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon inventory has shifted to accumulation, and short - term attention should be paid to downstream production cuts. With a supply - demand logic leaning towards the bearish side, a strategy of shorting on rallies can be adopted, such as shorting when the price rebounds to 8800 - 9000 and taking profit at 8200 - 8300 [6]. - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates within a range, and attention should be paid to the details of the rectification measures next Tuesday. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and strong demand, and the futures price is expected to remain above the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon futures prices have fallen from highs and fluctuated widely, with spot prices remaining flat. The futures price closed at 8605 yuan/ton on Friday, and the SMM - reported prices of Xinjiang 99 - silicon and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon were unchanged from the previous period [2]. - Polysilicon futures prices fluctuated within a range. Some funds may have traded on the expectation of a platform rectification plan next Tuesday, and the futures price closed at 50,200 yuan/ton on Friday. There is an expectation of price loosening in the upstream of the polysilicon spot market, and attention should be paid to the next restocking node of downstream enterprises in late January [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory has slightly increased. Xinjiang's production has increased, while Sichuan and Inner Mongolia's production has decreased. The overall weekly output has slightly decreased month - on - month. The Southwest has entered the dry season, and local production has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang are still in a heat - preservation state, and some have slightly resumed production. The social inventory has increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory has increased by 0.42 million tons, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.7 million tons [3]. - Demand side: Downstream demand is weak. In the polysilicon field, there is short - term production reduction, and if further production cuts are implemented, the demand for industrial silicon will decrease. In the organic silicon field, production has decreased this week, and there are plans for further production cuts. Although the logic of price support is difficult to succeed, the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to pre - emptive exports and some consumption increments. In the aluminum alloy field, manufacturers purchase reasonably at low prices and are more cautious at other times. Overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Short - term weekly output has decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, silicon material manufacturers reduced production passively due to inventory pressure. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has increased month - on - month, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious. The current factory inventory is around 320,000 tons, and the industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to five months of consumption [4]. - Demand side: The silicon wafer production schedule has increased month - on - month. The silicon wafer inventory is relatively reasonable in January, and the price increase has been passed on to downstream, supporting the increase in production. The cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to a peak season for component and cell exports in the first quarter, boosting terminal demand [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: With inventory accumulation and a supply - demand situation of both weak supply and demand, the upside of the futures price is limited. However, short - term sentiment speculation and the preference of funds for low - valuation varieties limit the downside. A strategy of shorting on rallies can be adopted, with a predicted next - week futures price range of 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The futures price fluctuates within a range. The supply - demand situation is of weak supply and strong demand, and the futures price is expected to remain above the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. The release of the rectification plan next Tuesday will support the futures price. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered. The predicted next - week futures price range is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short industrial silicon at high prices. For polysilicon, consider options instead of futures [6][7]. - Inter - period: No recommendation [8]. - Hedging: It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - hedging [8].