宏观量化经济指数周报20260118：多举措支持下经济“开门红”的可能性进一步提升-20260118

Economic Indicators - As of January 18, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 49.96%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.84%, also up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is 49.83%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.66%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI export index is 50.20%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight recovery in exports[6] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of January 18, 2026, is -0.79%, down 0.64 percentage points from last week, reflecting a structural "rate cut" aimed at supporting economic growth[11] - The People's Bank of China reported that the average interest rate for new corporate loans and personal housing loans was approximately 3.1% in Q4 2025, indicating continued loose financing conditions[15] Industrial Production - The operating rate for full steel tires is 62.93%, up 4.91 percentage points from last week, while the half steel tire operating rate is 73.44%, up 7.55 percentage points[16] - The national high furnace operating rate is 78.82%, down 0.51 percentage points from last week but up 1.66 percentage points year-on-year[16] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending January 11, 2026, is 29,818 units, down 9,196 units year-on-year, with total retail sales for the first 11 days of January at 328,000 units, a 32% decline from the previous year[24] - The textile price index recorded 105.72 points, a slight increase of 0.31 points from the previous week[25] Export Performance - The cumulative cargo throughput at ports from January 5 to January 11, 2026, is 26,275.1 million tons, reflecting a 3.06% increase week-on-week[37] - The SCFI index for container shipping is 1,574.12 points, down 73.27 points from the previous week, while the CCFI index is 1,209.85 points, up 14.96 points[42] Inflation Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.00 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables is 5.52 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg[43]