Xinda Securities·2026-01-18 12:03Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - The coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate coal stocks on dips. The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged, and coal prices have established a bottom and are expected to rise. High - quality coal enterprises have core asset attributes such as high profitability, high cash flow, high ROE, and high dividends. The coal sector is still undervalued, and its valuation is expected to increase. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the "15th Five - Year Plan", and coal prices are likely to remain high. The report continues to be bullish on the coal sector and recommends top - down attention to several types of coal companies [3][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - Core View: The coal industry is in the early stage of a new upward cycle. The supply side shows an increase in the utilization rate of sample power and coking coal mine wells. On the demand side, there are differences in coal consumption between inland and coastal areas, and non - electric demand also shows different trends. Coal prices stopped falling and rebounded since late December, but the rebound momentum weakened this week. In the future, inventory depletion and the upcoming cold wave will support coal prices, and the market is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday. The coal sector has high - dividend support and upward elasticity, making it a cost - effective investment [11] - Investment Suggestions: Focus on companies with stable operations and performance, those with large previous declines and high elasticity, and high - quality metallurgical coal companies. Also, pay attention to other related companies [12] - Key Focus: In 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 9.6% year - on - year; India's coal production was basically flat with a slight decline; global seaborne coal trade decreased by 2.8% [13] 2. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 3.33% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 0.57% to 4731.87. The top - three sectors in terms of gains were computer, electronics, and media [14] - The power coal, coking coal, and coke sectors fell 3.46%, 3.66%, and 4.38% respectively [17] - The top - three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Anyuan Coal Industry (3.97%), Huayang Co., Ltd. (2.90%), and Diantou Energy (0.81%) [20] 3. Coal Price Tracking - Coal Price Index: As of January 16, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 688.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 686.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - Thermal Coal Price: At ports, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 697 yuan/ton on January 17, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. At production sites, prices in some areas were stable while in Datong, it decreased. Internationally, FOB and CIF prices showed different trends [30] - Coking Coal Price: At ports, the prices of coking coal in Jingtang Port and Lianyungang increased. At production sites, prices in some areas increased while in others they were stable. The CIF price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China increased [32] - Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Injection Price: The coking anthracite car - loading price in Jiaozuo was flat, while the prices of pulverized coal injection in Changzhi and Yangquan decreased [40] 4. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - Coal Mine Capacity Utilization: As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of sample power coal mine wells was 90.6%, up 0.3 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of sample coking coal mine wells was 88.47%, up 3.1 percentage points week - on - week [47] - Import Coal Price Difference: As of January 16, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal decreased [43] - Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory: Inland 17 provinces saw a decrease in coal inventory and an increase in daily consumption, while coastal 8 provinces saw a decrease in both inventory and consumption [44] - Downstream Metallurgical Demand: The Myspic composite steel price index increased slightly, the price of first - grade metallurgical coke was flat, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, the profit per ton of coke decreased, the profit per ton of steel in the blast furnace increased, the iron - scrap price difference decreased, and the blast furnace scrap consumption ratio decreased [65][66] - Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand: Urea prices in some regions increased, the national methanol price index decreased, the national ethylene glycol price index decreased, the national acetic acid price index increased, the national synthetic ammonia price index increased, the national cement price index decreased, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and chemical weekly coal consumption increased [72][76] 5. Coal Inventory Situation - Thermal Coal Inventory: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory increased to 550.0 tons; 55 ports' thermal coal inventory decreased to 6830.8 tons; the inventory of 462 sample mines decreased to 283.9 tons [91] - Coking Coal Inventory: The production - site inventory decreased to 272.4 tons, the six - port inventory decreased to 298.9 tons, the inventory of independent coking plants increased to 954.8 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 802.2 tons [92] - Coke Inventory: The inventory of coking plants decreased to 40.6 tons, the four - port inventory increased to 188.1 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 650.33 tons [94] 6. Coal Transportation Situation - International and Domestic Coal Transportation: As of January 16, the China Yangtze River Coal Transportation Comprehensive Freight Index (CCSFI) was 704 points, down 3.6 points week - on - week [107] - Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Northern Ports: As of January 16, the inventory at four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1465.2 tons, the number of anchored ships was 99, and the ratio of cargo to ships was 14.8, down 1.96 week - on - week [102] - Daqin Line Coal Transportation: The average daily coal shipment volume on the Daqin Line this week was 118.0 tons, up 9.75 tons week - on - week [107] 7. Weather Situation - As of January 16, the Three Gorges outbound flow was 9180 cubic meters per second, up 23.22% week - on - week [114] - In the next 10 days, there will be precipitation in some areas, and a cold wave will affect many regions with significant temperature drops [114] - In the long - term (January 27 - 30), there will be precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be lower or higher than normal [114] 8. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - Listed Company Valuation Table: The table shows the closing prices, net profit attributable to shareholders, EPS, and PE of key listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [115] - Key Announcements: Xinji Energy released its 2025 performance report; Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. announced the progress of its controlling shareholder's strategic restructuring; Guanghui Energy announced a guarantee - related关联交易; Meijin Energy announced a guarantee for its subsidiary and its 2025 performance forecast [116][117][118] 9. This Week's Important Industry News - By 2030, Guizhou's coal production and trial - operation capacity will reach 260 million tons per year [119] - Yunnan will increase coal resource exploration and promote the release of advanced coal production capacity [119] - 20 coal mines in Ordos passed the intelligent acceptance [119] - Guizhou has made breakthroughs in the coal and unconventional natural gas fields [119] - Jiangsu released its 2026 major project list, including one coal - related project [120]