Xiangcai Securities·2026-01-18 12:17Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Overweight" rating, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese medicine sector experienced a decline of 1% last week, with the overall pharmaceutical and biological index down by 0.68%. The only sub-sector to record positive returns was medical services, which rose by 3.29% [2]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is currently at 27.11X, a decrease of 0.28X week-on-week, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 2.28X, down by 0.02X. These ratios indicate that the sector is within the 28.25% and 5.37% percentiles since 2013, respectively [3]. - The market for traditional Chinese medicine materials is experiencing reduced traffic, with a downward trend expected throughout 2025 due to supply expansion leading to a mismatch in supply and demand. The overall price index for traditional Chinese medicine materials fell by 29.31 points from the beginning to the end of 2025 [4]. - The adjustment of the essential drug list is anticipated to make significant progress in 2026, enhancing the accessibility of grassroots medications and potentially expanding the market rapidly [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector's index closed at 6350.32 points, reflecting a 1% decline last week. In comparison, the chemical pharmaceuticals and biological products sectors also saw declines of 2.4% and 1.21%, respectively [2][12]. Valuation - The current PE ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.11X, with a year-high of 30.26X and a year-low of 24.72X. The PB ratio is 2.28X, with a maximum of 2.52X and a minimum of 2.17X over the past year [3]. Supply Chain Insights - The market for traditional Chinese medicine materials is currently facing a decrease in traffic, with a price index showing a downward trend. The overall price index for 2025 is expected to reflect a decline due to previous overproduction [4]. Policy Developments - The essential drug list has not been updated since 2018, but significant adjustments are expected in 2026, which may enhance the synergy between the essential drug list and medical insurance policies [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform. Companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6][10].