南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报：现实疲弱，价格缺乏弹性-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The glass industry is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with the daily melting of float glass dropping to a certain low level, and there are expectations for both cold repairs and ignitions in the future. The demand is weak in both reality and expectation, making it difficult to have a trend - based movement. The policy may also affect the supply, so changes in supply expectations should be monitored. The price rhythm is hard to grasp [1]. - The soda ash industry is mainly cost - priced. Although the supply side occasionally reduces production, new production capacities are gradually ramping up, and the daily output is at an absolute high. Without supply disruptions, the expectation of oversupply remains consistent, and the valuation has limited upward flexibility. As the cold repair expectations of float glass and photovoltaic glass resurface, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month [1]. - In reality, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, resulting in a short - lived positive feedback between futures and spot. For soda ash, the production still has room to increase, and the capacity expansion cycle is not over, so the expectation of oversupply persists [1]. - The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The daily melting of float glass has declined, with both cold repair and ignition expectations. The demand is weak, and the policy may affect supply. The high middle - stream inventory needs to be digested [1]. - Soda ash: Cost - based pricing, new capacities are increasing, daily output is high, and there is an expectation of oversupply. The cold repair of glass will reduce rigid demand [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Glass: The overall demand is weak, with both cold repair and ignition expectations, and the middle - stream maintains high inventory. The 05 contract is more about expectations, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers. - Strategy: The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass: - Spot prices: There was no change in the prices of various glass products on January 18, 2026, compared with the previous day [8]. - Futures prices: The glass 05 contract increased by 17 yuan to 1103 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 09 contract increased by 13 yuan to 1209 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The 01 contract decreased by 941 yuan to 0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 100% [8]. - Production and sales: On January 16, 2026, the production - sales ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 135, 90, 91, and 105 respectively [9]. - Soda ash: - Spot prices: There was little change in the market prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions on January 16, 2026, compared with the previous day [10]. - Futures prices: The soda ash 05 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1192 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. The 09 contract increased by 3 yuan to 1259 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The 01 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1115 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09% [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: There are still some glass production lines with cold repair expectations to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the supply is still shrinking [11]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively manage high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting from 2026, and the market may have new expectations for supply - side policies. - There is still room for positive feedback between futures and spot for both glass and soda ash when the futures prices rise. - Shahe glass has ignition expectations, the high middle - stream inventory persists, and the far - month demand lacks upward flexibility, with differences in the degree of demand decline. - The second - phase first and second lines of Alxa's 100 - million - ton new production capacities are gradually ramping up, maintaining long - term supply pressure. The cold repair expectation of glass will affect the rigid demand for soda ash [14]. - Monitor the production - sales situation, spot prices of glass, and the spot trading situation of soda ash [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - Glass: The expectation of the main 05 contract is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is high, and the middle - stream has high inventory. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, but the demand is unclear [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structures - Glass: The 5 - 9 spread fluctuates mainly in a range, without a clear direction, as the supply - demand expectations are uncertain, and funds are on the sidelines [20]. - Soda ash: It maintains a C - shaped structure. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term situation may deteriorate again [21]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in losses, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits or are on the verge of break - even [37]. - Soda ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1210 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1080 - 1090 yuan/ton [37]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [43]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 19 million tons, maintaining high export expectations [43]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply Side and Projections - Glass: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 150,000 tons. There are still some cold - repaired production lines to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting is expected to decline further [49]. - Soda ash: The current daily output of soda ash has increased to over 110,000 tons. The first and second lines of the second - phase project in Alxa (with a total of 2.8 million tons) have been ignited and are gradually producing products [54]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Projections - Glass: The middle - stream inventory remains high, and the spot pressure persists. As of the end of December, the deep - processing orders for glass were 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing raw material inventory was 8.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.96%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 7.5%. The terminal demand remains weak, and the middle - stream replenishes inventory at low prices [56]. - Soda ash: The total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 238,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 47,600 tons. With the cold repair expectation of glass, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic glass remains high, with an inventory period of about 39 days, and the industry chain is in a state of oversupply. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 0.2%. The rigid demand for soda ash declines slightly month - on - month, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [67]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of glass factories is 53.013 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory period is 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The upstream inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream [75]. - Soda ash: The inventory of soda ash is 1.575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0023 million tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 0.837 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0005 million tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 0.738 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0018 million tons. The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 0.3877 million tons (an increase of 0.00104 million tons). The total inventory of soda ash factories and delivery warehouses is 1.9627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.00127 million tons. The upstream inventory fluctuates at a high level [75].