豆粕：靴子落地，价格或有反弹；豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面反弹震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Next week (01.19 - 01.23), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures may rebound. For soybean meal, although the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations had a bearish impact on prices, the market has already factored them in. After these events, there is no further negative news, so the soybean meal price is expected to rebound from a low level. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - US Soybean Futures Prices: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), US soybean futures prices first declined due to the bearish USDA report and then rose because of Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (due to the possible formulation of 2026 biofuel blending quotas in March in the US). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 0.61%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 4.58% [2]. - Fundamental Factors: - Chinese Purchases: From January 12 to January 16, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations were about 1.4 million tons (mostly for 2025/26 delivery, and a few for 2026/27 delivery) [2]. - USDA Export Sales Report: In the week of January 8, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipments were about 1.64 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative export shipments were about 17.98 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 2.06 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 1.22 million tons (0.47 million tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - Brazilian Soybean Import Cost: As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - USDA Reports: The January USDA monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in the ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. According to the USDA quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. These two reports had a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - South American Weather Forecast: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 has a bullish impact and needs to be monitored [2][3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Futures Prices: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, mainly affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) had a weekly decline of 2.12% [2]. - Spot Market: - Trading Volume: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - Pick - up Volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [4]. - Crushing Volume: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to rise next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - January 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [4]. - Imported Soybean Auction: On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold at an average transaction price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - Futures Prices: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean futures prices fluctuated, mainly affected by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly upward spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) had a weekly decline of 1.23% [2]. - Spot Market: - Prices: In Northeast China, the net grain purchase price of soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean grain passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In inland areas, the net grain purchase price of soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - Farmer and Market Sentiment: In the Northeast production area, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the market is cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expect prices to rise and ask for high prices. Most traders are cautious about purchasing and consume their inventories, and the speed of goods flowing to the market is slow. High prices suppress transactions, and there is a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets. In the sales areas, the soybean price increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance is low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, the arrival cost continued to rise, and the selling price was adjusted accordingly. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which suppressed the overall trading speed of the market [5].