国泰君安期货能源化工聚烯烃周报-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views Plastic Part - The supply is expected to increase in January, with some production shifting back to standard products. The futures and spot markets may not continue to resonate. The market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to take a short - position on rebounds in the single - side trading, and not recommend cross - period and cross - variety trading for now [5] Polypropylene Part - The valuation has increased, leading some devices to return. The PDH has concentrated maintenance in the first quarter. The market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and prices are expected to fluctuate. It is also recommended to take a short - position on rebounds in the single - side trading, and not recommend cross - period and cross - variety trading for now [82][84] 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Futures prices, spot prices, and various price spreads have changed. The basis has strengthened, and the 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened. The import window has been repaired, and the non - standard price spread has changed. The overall profit has been repaired, with significant recent repairs in ethane and externally - purchased ethylene profits [9][13][23][34] Supply - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the production capacity base has increased, with a significant increase in total supply. The current maintenance plan in Q1 is not yet available, and the supply is expected to remain loose. The import volume may remain relatively high at the end of the year and the beginning of the next year [38][40][49] Demand & Inventory - The overall downstream demand is showing signs of decline. The inventory has shifted from the upstream to the mid - stream, but the mid - stream inventory reduction has been slow [59][65][77] Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - Futures and spot prices, as well as various price spreads, have fluctuated. The basis has strengthened slightly, and the month - spread has fluctuated. The import window is approaching to open, and the non - standard price spread has changed. The overall profit is compressed [88][93][100][120] Supply - From the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, the production capacity has increased significantly. The start - up rate has declined recently, and the maintenance volume is higher than the same period last year. The subsequent maintenance scale is considerable, and the supply is expected to decrease [128][129][140] Demand & Inventory - The downstream demand is mixed. The inventory has shifted from the upstream to the mid - stream, and the oil - based inventory has been significantly reduced [153][160][166]