甲醇周度报告-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The equity market sentiment is temporarily stable, causing the commodity index to decline from its high, and methanol follows the index correction. In the medium term, methanol is gradually entering a de - stocking pattern, and the fundamentals may support the overall price of methanol. Therefore, the upward and downward space of methanol is relatively limited [2][4]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are neutral, and the production profit remains at a low level. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. The cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol is gradually stabilizing around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. - Regarding trading strategies, in the short term, methanol is expected to fluctuate. The resistance level for the 05 contract is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the support level is 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread may present a positive spread pattern, and the spread between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary - Production: From January 9th to 15th, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0301 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.87%, a decrease from the current period. The planned maintenance and production cuts next week involve more production capacity than the recovery, which may lead to a decrease in capacity utilization and production [4]. - Inventory: As of January 14th, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.63%. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. The visible foreign vessel unloading was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. The提货 volume in the main storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu was okay, while the提货 volume in other social storage areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was average. Although there were new terminal shutdowns in Zhejiang, the inventory decreased significantly due to less unloading. The inventory in South China ports continued to decline. In Guangdong, there were small amounts of imports and domestic arrivals during the week, and the提货 volume in the main storage areas was stable, resulting in inventory reduction. In Fujian, with the supply from imports and domestic trade and the downstream consumption on demand, the inventory also decreased [4]. - Demand - Olefins: Next week, MTO plants will operate stably with no obvious change plans, and the weekly average operating rate will decline [4]. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, after Chongqing Wanlilai starts production next week, it plans to produce products, and the overall capacity utilization rate may increase compared with the previous period. For glacial acetic acid, Jiantao is expected to resume normal operation next week, and other factories have no planned maintenance, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, Liuyang Jingang plans to restart next week, and the supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. For chlorides, due to the production reduction of plants in the Shandong region in the next period, the overall capacity utilization rate may decline, and attention should be paid to the recovery of Jinling and Luxi plants [4]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of 11:30 on January 14th, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [4]. Price and Spread - The content provides multiple price - related graphs, including the basis, month - spread, and warehouse receipt of methanol in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange from 2020 to 2026; domestic spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, Lunan region, and Taicang; international spot prices in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB; and port - inland price differences such as Taicang - Hebei, Taicang - Sichuan and Chongqing, Taicang - Henan, and Taicang - Lunan [7][12][16][20]. Supply - Production and Operating Rate - Overall: The content shows the daily production and capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol from 2018 to 2026, as well as the daily capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol [25][26]. - By Process: It shows the weekly production of methanol from different processes in China from 2018 to 2026, including coke - oven gas - to - methanol, coal - single - methanol, natural - gas - to - methanol, and coal - co - methanol [28][29]. - By Region: It shows the daily capacity utilization rate of methanol in different regions of China from 2018 to 2026, including the northwest, southwest, east, and central regions [31][32][33]. - Import - related: It includes the monthly import volume of Chinese methanol from 2020 to 2025, the daily import cost, weekly arrival volume, and daily import profit from 2020 to 2026 [35][36][37][38]. - Cost: It shows the daily production cost of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2026, including coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke - oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing [39][40][41]. - Profit: It shows the daily production profit of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2026, including coal - based in Shandong, coke - oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing [43][44][45]. Demand - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the daily capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and MTBE export - oriented plants in China from 2018 to 2026 [47][48][51][52]. - Downstream Profit: It shows the daily production profit of methanol - to - olefins in the east and Shandong regions, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu from 2020 to 2026 [55][56][59][60][61]. - Procurement Volume - MTO: It shows the procurement volume of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in China, the east, northwest, and central regions from 2020 to 2026 [63][64][65][66]. - Traditional Downstream: It shows the procurement volume of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the north, east, and southwest regions from 2020 to 2026 [68][69][70][71]. - Traditional Downstream Inventory: It shows the inventory of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the northwest, Shandong, and south - China regions from 2020 to 2026 [73][74][75][76]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the weekly factory inventory of Chinese methanol and its inventory in the east, northwest, and Inner Mongolia regions from 2018 to 2026 [78][79][80][81]. - Port Inventory: It shows the weekly port inventory of Chinese methanol and its inventory in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 to 2026 [83][84][85].