国际时政周评：地缘风险仍存

Geopolitical Risks - The situation in Iran remains tense, with Trump delaying military action due to insufficient preparation by the U.S. and Israel, leading to a 1.9% increase in Brent oil prices as of January 17[5] - The U.S. aims to avoid a prolonged war in the Middle East, focusing on pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear and missile programs, while Iran's survival of its regime remains a priority[5] - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East is expected to remain high throughout the year, influenced by Israel's upcoming elections and the fragile peace agreements in Gaza[5] Greenland and U.S. Tariffs - Trump continues to exert pressure on Europe regarding Greenland, with potential tariffs on goods exported to the U.S. from Denmark and other countries increasing from 10% to 25% by June 2026[17] - The U.S. Supreme Court has yet to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which may provide the administration with more leeway in negotiations with countries like India and Brazil[6] - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, reflecting a focus on strategic security industries[6] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.4% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.1%, indicating mixed performance in the Chinese stock market[7] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.9% this week, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns[12] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.2%, while the euro depreciated by 0.4% against the Chinese yuan, indicating fluctuations in currency markets[7]