债市专题研究：创新高后业绩主线有望回归

Bond Market Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - As the annual report and performance forecast disclosure window opens, the market is expected to return to the performance mainline, with the sustainability of theme investments likely to weaken and valuation factors expected to strengthen [1][21]. - In the past week, after the equity market's volume increased and prices soared, the market style is expected to enter a stage of balanced development. The small and medium - cap stocks showed strong performance, and the market style is expected to shift from theme - driven to balanced allocation [1][10]. - Recently, the volatility and volume - price correlation style has been strong, while valuation factors have not been fully priced. Investors need to seize strong varieties while strengthening drawdown control and valuation constraints [2][11]. - The spring market is not over yet. High - quality companies with solid fundamentals and better - than - expected performance are expected to achieve excess returns and become the core mainline in the second half of the spring market [3][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - Market Style and Allocation Tendency: After the equity market's volume increased and prices soared, the market style is expected to enter a stage of balanced development. The small and medium - cap stocks showed strong performance. The market style is expected to shift from theme - driven to balanced allocation, and the convertible bond market style is expected to return to relative balance with the equity market [1][10]. - Style Performance and Strategy: The volatility and volume - price correlation style has been strong, while valuation factors have not been fully priced. The volatility style is relatively stable, but the momentum and volume - price correlation styles are weakened by some targets. Investors need to seize strong varieties while strengthening drawdown control and valuation constraints [2][11]. - Fund Flow and Preference: In the past week, the risk preference of funds continued to be cautious, and the allocation idea was still centered on defense and stability. Bond ETFs were actively traded, and the market was in a stage of high - level shock with obvious industry and style rotation characteristics [12]. - Future Market Outlook: As the annual report and performance forecast disclosure window opens, the market is expected to return to the performance mainline. High - quality companies with solid fundamentals and better - than - expected performance are expected to achieve excess returns, mainly due to the mean - reversion of market sentiment, the change of incremental fund attributes, and the return of the valuation constraint mechanism [3][21]. 1.1 Convertible Bond Market - Index Performance: Different convertible bond indexes showed different performance in different time periods. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Information Technology Index had a weekly increase of 2.52%, and the Wind Convertible Bond High - price Index had a weekly increase of 3.45% [23]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - Ranking of Individual Securities: The report presents the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains and losses, such as Huayi Convertible Bond leading the gainers and Zai 22 Convertible Bond leading the losers [24][26]. 1.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation Trends: The report shows the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [28][30][34]. 1.4 Convertible Bond Price - Price Indicators: The report shows the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds [31][38][39].