资金博弈加剧，盘面波动放大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the capital game in lithium carbonate futures outweighs the fundamentals game. Despite good downstream point - price transactions on Friday, it may not be able to accommodate the exit of the previously crowded long positions. However, with demand support and mining - end disturbances, lithium carbonate prices are likely to be generally more likely to rise than fall. - The core issue with the rise of lithium carbonate prices lies in price downward transmission. The rapid increase in cathode material prices has transferred the pressure to cell manufacturers. In the long - term, it is necessary to monitor whether the rise in lithium carbonate prices will affect the fulfillment of energy storage demand in the second half of the year. - It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the position volume and volatility stabilize [1][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Game Intensifies, Market Fluctuations Amplify - Price and Market Fluctuations: Last week (1/12 - 1/16), lithium salt prices rose rapidly and then fell sharply. The LC2605 closing price increased by 1.9% to 146,200 yuan/ton. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices increased by 12.9% and 13.2% to 158,000 and 154,500 yuan/ton respectively. Lithium hydroxide prices also fluctuated accordingly. - Reasons for Price Decline: The significant drop in lithium carbonate was mainly due to the position limit, which triggered long - position capital to take profits and caused a stampede. On Friday, the weighted lithium carbonate contract reduced positions by 48,800 lots, accounting for 5.5%. - Fundamentals - Supply: This week, SMM inventory decreased by 263 tons. Brazilian Sigma Lithium's mine may delay its resumption due to tailings treatment issues. There are rumors that some mica mines in Yichun have stopped production, affecting a monthly output of about 3,000 tons of LCE. SMM weekly production increased by 70 tons. - Demand: After cathode material manufacturers achieved short - term price support, many cathode manufacturers adjusted their production schedules. The demand in the off - season showed a stronger non - weakening feature. The downstream restocking demand was large on Friday, and it is expected to continue due to low raw material inventory days (about 9.1 days). - Terminal Demand: Domestic power demand is weak, but overseas power demand may improve, and energy storage demand maintains high growth [1][10][11][13] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Company News: On January 13, Rongbai Technology announced a major contract with CATL. On January 18, it was announced that the company was filed by the CSRC for suspected misleading statements in the major contract announcement. - International Trade: China and Canada reached a preliminary trade agreement on electric vehicles. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the market annually with a most - favored - nation tariff rate of 6.1%. - Policy Adjustment: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standards and trading limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts from January 15. - Mining News: Brazil's Sigma Lithium's three waste dumps were shut down, delaying the mine's resumption and leading to a downgrade by Bank of America and a 15% drop in its stock price [15][16][17][18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain - Resource End: Lithium concentrate prices increased with the market. - Lithium Salt: The market fluctuated greatly, and the basis oscillated widely. - Downstream Intermediates: Downstream prices rose driven by costs. - Terminal: Power demand weakened month - on - month in January [10][11][14]