Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea is in a phase of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity in 2026, and its price center will further decline, but the decline will be supported by export policies. The price trend in the first half of the year will depend on the demand rhythm, and in the second half, it will be policy - dominated. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation, but the price is expected to correct in the short term, with the top range between 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - The short - term upstream price will remain firm, and some prices will continue to rise, but the market is afraid of high prices, and the procurement rhythm of the middle and lower reaches has slowed down [8]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the UR2605 operating range between 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to build long positions around 1700 yuan/ton [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea is in a supply - surplus stage. In 2026, the price center will decline, and the price trend will be affected by export policies and demand rhythm. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation but may correct in the short term [4]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the UR2605 operating in the range of 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to build long positions around 1700 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: The 11, 12, 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, 05 contracts are strong with peak - season demand expectations. The upper pressure of the 05 contract is 1950 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1650 yuan/ton. There is no hedging arbitrage strategy [10][11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons [12]. - Negative Information: The current domestic daily urea production is 20810 tons. Next week, some maintenance devices will resume operation, and some gas - head urea plants will have concentrated maintenance. The domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly after a narrow increase. The demand side should focus on the procurement rhythm of reserve demand and the start - up change of Northeast compound fertilizer plants [12]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - China's urea production this week was 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37400 tons or 2.93%. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, continuing to increase [13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - The domestic urea market continued to rise over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The prices of small and medium - sized particles in the mainstream areas are between 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. Driven by the fourth batch of urea export quotas and the news of a new round of Indian tenders, the market sentiment is strong, but the middle and lower reaches are resistant. The short - term market will continue to be stable and strong [14]. - After the premium of the 05 contract is compressed, it is recommended to do a positive spread for 5 - 9 at low positions [15]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price range of urea is 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% in three years [21]. - Urea Hedging Strategy Table: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management under different scenarios, including shorting urea futures, buying put options, selling call options, etc., with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [23]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The document shows the seasonal charts of urea's weekly fixed - bed production cost, water - coal slurry gasification production cost, natural - gas production cost, and corresponding production profits [25][27]. 4.2 Upstream Start - up Rate Tracking - The document presents the seasonal charts of urea's daily output, weekly capacity utilization rate, weekly coal - head capacity utilization rate, and weekly natural - gas production capacity utilization rate [31]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The document includes the seasonal charts of China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, weekly port inventory, weekly Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and the combined inventory of ports and inland areas [33][35]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The document shows the seasonal charts of compound fertilizer's weekly capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, production profit, and the seasonal charts of melamine's weekly capacity utilization rate, market price, production volume, and production profit. It also shows the market prices of different types of compound fertilizers and synthetic ammonia [37][45][51]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The document provides the seasonal charts of urea's average production and sales, as well as the production and sales in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [61][62].
南华期货尿素产业周报：多单持有-20260118
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-01-18 13:14