出栏进度偏慢，助推猪价反弹：农林牧渔

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a slow pace of market release, leading to a rebound in pig prices. As of January 16, the pig price is 12.77 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.19 CNY/kg. The average monthly release completion rate is 31%, lower than the same period last year [2][9] - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising due to increased replenishment enthusiasm following the implementation of import beef restrictions. As of January 16, calf prices are 33.03 CNY/kg, up 1.91% week-on-week, indicating a long-term upward trend in beef prices [3][29] - The poultry sector is seeing a decline in chick prices as the market transitions out of a vaccination pause. As of January 16, the price for white feather broiler chicks is 2.74 CNY/chick, down 0.85 CNY/chick from before the pause [3][38] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The slow release pace in pig farming is pushing prices up, with profits for self-bred and purchased piglets at 7.39 CNY/head and 48.35 CNY/head respectively, both showing week-on-week increases [2][9] - The average weight of pigs being released has increased to 128.85 kg, with a week-on-week rise of 0.31 kg [12][17] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, down 1.12% from the previous month, indicating a gradual reduction in production capacity [27][28] Beef Sector - The implementation of import beef restrictions is expected to benefit domestic beef prices, with a forecasted upward trend in prices from 2026 to 2027 [29] - The current price for fattened bulls is 25.66 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.59% [29] Poultry Sector - The egg price has increased to 7.29 CNY/kg, up 0.69% week-on-week, driven by pre-holiday stocking [3][42] - The profit margins for broiler chickens and parent stock are showing mixed results, with broiler chicken farming profit at 0.3 CNY/chick and slaughter profit at -0.51 CNY/chick [3][38] Seed Industry - The seed industry is seeing strengthened intellectual property protection, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [49]