供应压力仍较大，承压调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by geopolitical factors, the center of crude oil prices has shifted upward, production profits are poor, and the cost side provides support [9]. - Capacity and output have increased significantly year - on - year, the operating rate is under pressure, and supply is abundant [9]. - The overall downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level, and it is the seasonal off - season, so demand is still weak [9]. - Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and there is a high risk of price decline [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview - Inventory: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 370,000 tons, with inventory expected to turn from a decline to an increase; China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 420,000 tons, a decrease compared to the current period [8]. - Supply: This week, plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical, Fujian United, and Shanghai Petrochemical are planned to restart, and there are no new planned maintenance plants, so the total output in the next period is expected to be 715,900 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons compared to the current total output; plants such as Fujian United and Sinochem Quanzhou are planned to restart, and there are no new planned in - house maintenance plants. The capacity utilization rate of the PP industry is likely to rebound, and it is expected to rebound to around 77% [8]. - Demand: This week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly decreased. The peak stocking period for most downstream markets has passed. Some small - scale enterprises may start their holidays early or reduce production due to poor pre - holiday downstream stocking. As the Spring Festival approaches, some traditional terminal fields such as packaging, building materials, and daily necessities have entered the shutdown and stocking stage, and the industry operating rate has declined accordingly [8]. - Industrial chain profit: The profits of oil - based PE and PP remain in the red, the profit of ethylene - based PE has turned positive, the profit of propylene - based PP is maintained, and the loss of PDH - based PP is still large, with support from the cost side [8]. 3.2 PP Single - side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP [12]. - Price and trend: Adjusting at a high level. As of January 15th, it was 6,592 [12]. - Logic: The new PP production capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak. The medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak [12]. - Operation suggestion: Hold short positions [12]. 3.3 Supply - side - PE production: The plastic's production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual production capacity growth rate of up to 12%. In 2025, the new production capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the production capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned production capacity of PE to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [89][97]. - PP production: PP's production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual production capacity growth rate of up to 11%. In 2025, China's PP production capacity reached about 4.555 million tons, and the production capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, an increase of 10.2% compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned production capacity of PP to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [95][99]. 3.4 Demand - side - PE/PP downstream operating rate: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly decreased, and most downstream markets' stocking peaks have passed. Some small - scale enterprises may start their holidays early or reduce production due to poor pre - holiday downstream stocking. As the Spring Festival approaches, some traditional terminal fields such as packaging, building materials, and daily necessities have entered the shutdown and stocking stage, and the industry operating rate has declined accordingly [8]. - PE/PP export volume: Relevant data on PE and PP export volume are presented in the form of charts, but no specific analysis is provided [125]. - Plastic products: Data on plastic product output, rubber and plastic products inventory, and the production and export of related products such as automobiles and home appliances are presented in the form of charts, but no specific analysis is provided [129][130][134].