油脂周报：印尼今年取消实施B50政策，油脂短期或宽幅震荡-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, with Indonesia canceling the implementation of the B50 policy this year, it is expected that the oil and fat market will experience wide - range fluctuations [5]. - The overall situation of the 12 - month MPOB report is bearish, with Malaysia's palm oil inventory exceeding expectations and accumulating [40]. - The overall situation of the oil and fat market in the short term is likely to be wide - range fluctuations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Viewpoints - Soybean oil: In the South American Brazilian main producing areas, there has been good rainfall recently, which is beneficial to the growth of sown soybeans. In the core producing areas of Argentina, there will be less or average rainfall in the next two weeks, which needs key attention [7]. - Palm oil: ITS and AmSpec data show that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 15 increased by 18.64% and 17.5% respectively compared with the previous period. The Indonesian government has decided to maintain the biodiesel plan at the B40 level this year, and will increase the palm oil export tax to 12.5% from March. The US government is expected to finalize the final biofuel blending quota for 2026 in early March, with the expected biomass diesel blending volume being 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons, higher than 3.35 billion gallons in 2025, and no import - suppressing measures on foreign raw materials will be implemented [7]. - Rapeseed oil: The Canadian Prime Minister said that it is expected that by March 1, China will reduce the tariff on Canadian rapeseed to a total of about 15% [7]. 3.2 Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 05 be referred to as 8,800 - 9,000; for options, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [9]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being [9]. - Outlook: Pay attention to national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices [9]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, the oil and fat market fluctuated widely, mainly affected by Indonesia's biodiesel policy, export policy, and US biodiesel policy news [21]. - The soybean - palm oil spread fluctuated widely, the rapeseed - palm oil spread fluctuated weakly, and the rapeseed - soybean spread fluctuated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for all [26]. 3.4 Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased by 5.46% to 1.8298 million tons compared with the previous month, consumption decreased by 14.01% to 0.3197 million tons, export volume increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons, and the palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons, exceeding market expectations [40]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: As of January 9, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0251 million tons, a decrease of 55,900 tons from the previous week, a decline of 5.17%, and an increase of 131,100 tons compared with the same period last year, a rise of 14.66% [78]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of January 9, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal main oil mills was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 251,500 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from the previous week; the total rapeseed oil inventory in main national regions was 253,500 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons from the previous week [82]. - Domestic palm oil: As of January 9, 2026 (the 2nd week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.30%, and an increase of 234,800 tons compared with 501,200 tons last year, an increase of 46.85% [78]. 3.5 Demand Side - The report provides charts of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oil and fat trading volumes, but no specific analysis content is given [67][69][71][73]. 3.6 Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0251 million tons, a decrease of 55,900 tons from the previous week, a decline of 5.17%, and an increase of 131,100 tons compared with the same period last year, a rise of 14.66% [78]. - As of January 9, 2026 (the 2nd week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.30%, and an increase of 234,800 tons compared with 501,200 tons last year, an increase of 46.85% [78]. - As of January 9, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal main oil mills was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 251,500 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from the previous week; the total rapeseed oil inventory in main national regions was 253,500 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons from the previous week [82]. 3.7 Disk Import Profit - As of January 16, 2026, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the February shipment was - 106 yuan/ton [88].