原油周报：短期继续关注地缘扰动-20260118

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Hualian Futures Crude Oil Weekly: Short - term Focus on Geopolitical Disturbances" [2] - Report Date: 20250118 [2] - Analyst: Huang Guiren [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Overall, crude oil supply and demand remain in an oversupplied state, and global oil inventories are at a high level. There are still short - term geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, Iran, etc. Technically, it mainly shows a range - bound pattern. For mid - to long - term futures trading, it should still be treated bearishly, but in the short - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical pulse - like disturbances. One can buy continuous call options for protection, and the resistance level for the SC2603 contract is at 450 - 460 yuan/barrel. [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Supply - OPEC+ Production: In December, OPEC+ total crude oil production was 42.831 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 238,000 barrels per day. OPEC crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.078 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 barrels per day. Due to seasonal factors, OPEC decided to suspend the production increase plan in the first three months of 2026. [9][32] - US Production: The US crude oil production exceeded 13.8 million barrels per day, maintaining a high level. As of the week ending January 9, the US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. The US shale oil production in December was 9.22 million barrels per day, accounting for about 66% of the total crude oil production. [9][47] - China Production and Import: In November, China's crude oil production was 17.627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The cumulative production from January to November was 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. China's crude oil imports in November were 50.891 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 84.9%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 522 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. [51] - Drilling Quantity: As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a month - on - month decrease of 30 and a year - on - year decrease of 82. Among them, the US rig count was 546, a month - on - month decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 43. [28] 4.2 Demand - Global Demand Forecast: The IEA monthly report raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2025 from 710,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day and expected the growth of oil demand in the fourth quarter to slow down. It also raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026 from 699,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the total global oil supply in 2026 will exceed the demand by 4.09 million barrels per day. The EIA short - term energy outlook report expects the average daily increase in global crude oil inventories in 2026 to reach 2.8 million barrels, basically the same as the increase in 2025. OPEC maintained its previous forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026, believing that the average daily global oil demand in 2026 will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day compared with 2025. [9] - Refinery Operating Rate: As of the week ending January 9, the US refinery operating rate was 95.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points, at a seasonal high. China's refinery operating rate was 70.62%, remaining flat both week - on - week and year - on - year. Domestic major refineries' operating rate rebounded month - on - month and was at a moderately high level, while independent refineries' operating rate decreased month - on - month. [61][65] - Product Oil Production and Export: In 2025, China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December was 162.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.07%, at the lowest level in recent years. The cumulative gasoline exports from January to November were 7.6775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The cumulative diesel production from January to December was 209.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.55%. The cumulative diesel exports from January to November were 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.28%. The cumulative kerosene production from January to December was 61.6166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. The cumulative exports from January to November were 19.5845 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.56%. [70][75][79] - Automobile and Truck Production: In 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 34.531 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Among them, the cumulative production of new - energy vehicles was 16.626 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 29%. The rapid development of China's new - energy vehicle industry since 2020 has had a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand. [84] 4.3 Inventory - OECD and Global In - transit Inventory: According to the OPEC monthly report, in November, OECD commercial oil inventories increased by 4 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil increasing by 8.1 million barrels and refined oil decreasing by 4.1 million barrels), 77.6 million barrels higher than the same period last year and slightly 300,000 barrels higher than the five - year average. The global in - transit crude oil inventory decreased from its high but remained at a high level. [90] - US Inventory: As of the week ending January 9, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.391 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 745,000 barrels. The US EIA gasoline inventory increased by 8.977 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory decreased by 290,000 barrels. With the high refinery operating rate in the US, refined oil inventories continued to accumulate. [92][96] - China Inventory: China's port crude oil inventory decreased week - on - week last week but was higher year - on - year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory remained stable at a low level. [101] 4.4 Macro Data - Not elaborated on in detail in the report, only some related data charts are provided, including China and US GDP year - on - year growth rates, the US dollar index, US non - farm employment numbers, and China's composite PMI.