1月USDA报告利空，豆菜粕短期或震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expected bumper harvest of new crops in South America, it is anticipated that soybean and rapeseed meal will likely experience short - term fluctuations and trend weakly [5]. - The January USDA report is negative, as it lowers U.S. soybean exports and raises the projected output of new Brazilian soybean crops by 3 million tons [7]. - In South America, recent good rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil is beneficial for the growth of sown soybeans, while the core production areas of Argentina may have less or average rainfall in the next two weeks, which requires close attention [7]. - In China, the high transaction price of the imported soybean auction by Sinograin on Tuesday supported the spot price, but the reserve auction also increased market supply. The news that China is expected to reduce tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by March 1 is negative for rapeseed meal [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy View and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the pressure level for soybean meal 2605 be referenced at 2850 - 2950 [9]. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [9]. - Outlook: Key points to watch include the weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and China - Canada and China - U.S. trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate and trend weakly in the short term [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated weakly [21]. - The January USDA report is negative, as it lowers U.S. soybean exports and raises the projected output of new Brazilian soybean crops by 3 million tons [22]. - The price spread between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuates strongly. Currently, the spread is at a mid - historical level, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. - The 3 - 5 spread of soybean meal fluctuates strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.3 Supply Side - U.S. Soybean Sales Data: Charts show the net sales volume, weekly export volume, and unsold shipped volume of U.S. soybeans in the current year [41][48]. - U.S. Soybean Crushing Data: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.12 per bushel, a 9.01% decrease from the previous week and a 10.42% increase from the same period last year [54]. - China's Soybean Import Volume: In December 2025, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 63,000 tons from November 2025 and a 1.3% increase from December 2024. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 111.833 million tons, a 6.46% increase year - on - year [58]. - China's Rapeseed Import Volume: Charts show the monthly and cumulative import volume of rapeseed in China [61]. - Domestic Soybean and Rapeseed Crushing Data: Charts show China's soybean and rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed meal output, and the crushing profit of imported soybeans [65][71]. 3.4 Demand Side - Pig Prices and Breeding Profits: Charts show China's commercial pig slaughter average price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit, and purchased - pig breeding profit [76]. - Poultry Breeding Profits: Charts show the breeding profits of white - feather broilers and laying hens [85]. 3.5 Inventory - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of January 9, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous week and a 17.96% increase year - on - year; the domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a 10.78% decrease from the previous week and a 72.68% increase year - on - year [90]. - Domestic Feed Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days: As of January 16 (the 3rd week of 2026), the national feed enterprise soybean meal physical inventory was 9.94 days, an increase of 0.41 days from the previous period and a decrease of 0.31 days from the same period last year [94]. - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory: As of the 2nd week of 2026, the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 449,500 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous week [98].