地产专题分析报告：新房和二手房的需求“跷跷板“

New Housing Market Insights - In the week of January 10-16, new home transaction volume in 47 cities decreased by 1.3% month-on-month and 26.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous week[2] - The current fluctuation between peak and off-peak seasons in new home transactions is intensifying due to a scarcity of quality supply, leading developers to increase launches during peak seasons and reduce inventory during off-peak seasons[5] - After the year-end rush, the new home market in January is maintaining an off-peak mode, with transaction volumes relatively stable but still showing a double-digit year-on-year decline due to high base effects from the previous year[5] Second-hand Housing Market Trends - In the same week, second-hand home transaction volume showed signs of recovery, increasing by 6.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 6.8%, which is a significant narrowing compared to the previous week[8] - The improvement in second-hand home transactions is largely attributed to the "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand home demand[8] - The adjustment in second-hand home listing prices has been slowing since the beginning of the year, influenced by seasonal effects and marginal improvements in seller expectations[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include an unexpected decline in housing prices, exceeding anticipated debt risks for real estate companies, and a macroeconomic downturn that could be worse than expected[3][11]