超长债周报：30-10利差回升至46BP-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The bond market rebounded slightly last week due to the central bank's 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation, a 25BP reduction in the structural monetary policy tool rate, good December import - export growth, weak December financial data, consecutive negative growth in household loans for three months, and the A - share market correction [1][4][11][39] - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The economic stabilization since Q4 2024 was mainly due to central government leverage. With no additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 2025 and the decline in government bond financing growth, the domestic economy in Q4 remains under pressure. Also, in 2026, the Party Central Committee emphasizes high - quality development more, and the importance of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in economic aggregates has decreased. Additionally, the absolute interest rate level is low, there is heavy selling pressure in treasury bond futures, and investor sentiment is generally weak [2][3][12][13] - The 30 - 10 spread of treasury bonds reached a new high this week and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term. The spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Long - term Bond Review - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation and reduced the structural monetary policy tool rate by 25BP. December import - export growth was good, but December financial data was weak, with household loans in negative growth for the third consecutive month. Along with the A - share correction, the bond market rebounded slightly. The trading activity of long - term bonds decreased slightly last week but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of long - term bonds widened [1][4][11] Long - term Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of January 16, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering economic and policy factors, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12] - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of January 16, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 15BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13] Long - term Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding long - term bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of long - term bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 24.4329 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 12 - 16, 2026), the issuance of long - term bonds dropped sharply to 83.7 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 32 billion yuan, local government bonds were 51.7 billion yuan, and other varieties had zero issuance. By term, the 30 - year variety had the largest issuance [19] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced long - term bond issuance plan for this week is 102.2 billion yuan, including 10.12 billion yuan of long - term local government bonds and 1 billion yuan of long - term medium - term notes [25] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, long - term bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 879.5 billion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week, with a decrease in turnover and proportion in most varieties, except for an increase in long - term local government bonds and long - term government agency bonds [27][28] Yield - Due to various factors, the bond market rebounded slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to different extents. Representative individual bonds also had corresponding yield changes [39][40] Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, a 4BP change from the previous week, at the 35th percentile since 2010 [46] - Variety Spread: The variety spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds, and 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 15BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 1BP and 2BP from the previous week, at the 14th and 20th percentiles since 2010 [47] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 111.16 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The total trading volume was 542,700 lots (- 18,010 lots), and the open interest was 140,000 lots (- 8,274 lots). Both trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous week [52]