转债市场周报：上涨共识支撑转债估值-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, A - share market rose first and then fell, with the daily trading volume hitting a record high on Wednesday. The bond market yield declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, down 3.58bp from the previous week. Most convertible bond issues closed higher, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 1.08% for the week [1][8][9]. - Although the current market price and convertible bond valuations in each price - parity range are close to historical 100% quantile positions, the equity is in an upward main - rising wave. Institutions' fear of missing out on opportunities strongly supports the convertible bond valuations. Currently, it is the stage with the strongest certainty of upward market force, and investors are reluctant to reduce positions despite high valuations [3][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Focus (January 12 - January 16, 2026) Stock Market - A - shares rose first and then fell. The daily trading volume reached a record high of 3.99 trillion yuan on Wednesday. After the exchange adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading on Wednesday, market sentiment cooled down. The commercial aerospace sector declined from its high, and the market focus shifted to AI applications and semiconductors. The dividend - paying sector underperformed [1][8]. - By industry, most Shenwan primary industries fell last week. Computer (3.82%), electronics (3.77%), non - ferrous metals (3.03%), media (2.04%), and machinery and equipment (1.91%) led the gains, while national defense and military industry (- 4.92%), real estate (- 3.52%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 3.27%), and coal (- 3.11%) lagged [9]. Bond Market - Although the equity market continued to rise at the beginning of the week, the impact on the bond market weakened significantly. Due to the increased expectation of equity market adjustment after its rapid rise, the bond market yield declined. After the central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools on Thursday, the yield fluctuated and remained stable overall. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, down 3.58bp from the previous week [1][9]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 1.08% for the week, the median price was up 0.63%, the arithmetic average parity was up 1.39%, and the market - wide conversion premium rate decreased by 0.64% compared with the previous week. In terms of individual bonds, Huayi, Dingjie, Haohan, Jingce Zhuan 2, and Weice led the gains, while Zai 22, Tianjian, Guanglian, Hugong, and Shentong convertible bonds led the losses [2][9][14]. - By industry, most convertible bond sectors in the market closed higher last week. Computer (4.92%), electronics (4.63%), media (4.62%), and machinery and equipment (4.32%) performed well, while national defense and military industry (- 5.17%), building materials (- 3.23%), coal (- 2.06%), and transportation (- 1.38%) underperformed [13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 509.615 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 101.923 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [16]. 3.2 Views and Strategies (January 19 - January 23, 2026) - The consensus on rising prices supports the valuation of convertible bonds. Last week, the equity market rose first and then fell under the influence of cooling forces. The theme market shifted from aerospace to AI applications and semiconductor equipment, and related convertible bonds performed well. The average parity increased, and the median market price rose to 139 yuan. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds in the high - parity range increased significantly. Convertible bond ETFs still showed a significant net inflow trend, and new issues remained strong [3][19]. - In terms of investment directions, for relative returns, it is recommended to focus on lithium - battery, semiconductor equipment and materials, chemical industry, and securities industries. For absolute - return funds, attention should be paid to the undervalued leading companies in underperforming industries such as two - wheeled vehicles, beauty and skincare, architectural design, and pig farming [4][20]. 3.3 Valuation Overview As of January 16, 2026, in equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 52.01%, 41.63%, 33.21%, 26.22%, 21.03%, and 21.08% respectively, at the 99%/100%, 98%/100%, 98%/100%, 99%/100%, 97%/100%, and 99%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021. In debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 4.26%, at the 1%/4% quantile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 51.03%, at the 96%/100% quantile since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 9.85%, at the 97%/100% quantile since 2010/2021 [21]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking - Last week (January 12 - January 16, 2026), Shangtai Convertible Bond and Naipu Zhuan 02 announced their issuances, while Aohong, Shuangle, and Jin 05 convertible bonds were listed [28]. - As of the announcements on January 16, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances and listings in the coming week (January 19 - January 23, 2026). Last week, 4 companies including Haitian Co., Ltd., Changgao Electric Co., Ltd., Tonglian Precision Co., Ltd., and Xianghe Industrial Co., Ltd. got the exchange's approval for registration, 1 company (Jiangshan Co., Ltd.) was accepted by the exchange, 2 companies (Runhe Materials and Qiangda Circuit) passed the shareholders' meeting, and 4 companies (Jindao Technology, Zhongchuang Zhiling, Caixun Co., Ltd., and Dingtong Technology) were at the board of directors' proposal stage [34]. - As of now, there are 99 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total planned issuance scale of 155.14 billion yuan. Among them, 9 bonds have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 8.69 billion yuan, and 1 bond has passed the listing committee, with a scale of 0.38 billion yuan [34].