南华期货甲醇产业周报：基本面疲软-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Since the New Year's Day holiday, the geopolitical logic has become the main line of methanol. Although Iranian plants have limited gas supply in winter, geopolitical conflicts have boosted the valuation under the recent warming of commodity sentiment. After methanol prices exceeded 2300, the biggest change in the fundamentals was the joint shutdown of olefin plants. Xingxing has shut down, Shenghong plans to shut down in February, and Bohua plans to shut down from March to April. The port basis has been continuously weakening, the de - stocking slope has been adjusted upwards, and near - end pressure has emerged, with the 3 - 5 structure under pressure. From the perspective of downstream profits, after the rapid rise of methanol prices, the port MTO profits have declined. In the inland areas, with the arrival of rain and snow, prices are expected to drop to clear inventory, and inland prices may fall further. The biggest contradiction in short - selling is the uncertainty of geopolitical logic, so it is difficult for methanol prices to decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see. Overall, the geopolitical logic of methanol continues. Although the shutdown of MTO plants has weakened the fundamentals of the 05 contract marginally, the operation is difficult [1]. - The near - end trading logic is the concern about the Iranian geopolitical conflict, and the far - end trading expectation is the expectation of MTO shutdown in the far - end of methanol [7]. - The trend of methanol is expected to fluctuate upwards, with the short - term operating range of methanol 2605 being 2100 - 2350. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and prepare for short positions [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Geopolitical logic has been the main line of methanol since the New Year's Day holiday. The joint shutdown of olefin plants has changed the fundamentals, and downstream profits have been affected. The uncertainty of geopolitical logic makes short - selling difficult [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Near - end trading logic: Concern about the Iranian geopolitical conflict. Far - end trading expectation: Expectation of MTO shutdown in the far - end of methanol [7]. - Base - difference strategy: This week, the price of methanol 05 was 2250. After the disk price rose and then fell, the 05 base - difference declined [9]. - Month - difference strategy: This week, with the expectation of MTO shutdown, the 3 - 5 spread went into a reverse arbitrage [10]. - Trend judgment: Methanol is expected to fluctuate upwards, with the short - term operating range of methanol 2605 being 2100 - 2350. Strategy recommendation: Take profit on long positions and prepare for short positions [11]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Multiple charts show the inventory situation of methanol in the inland areas, including the inventory of northwest methanol, north - line methanol plants, and national methanol plants, etc. [18][23][26] 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Multiple charts show the port inventory situation of methanol, including the inventory of Chinese ports, provincial ports, and the inventory of some warehouses. Also, the situation of Taicang's shipping volume is presented [33][43][46] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Methanol price range forecast: The monthly price range of methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% in 3 years [59]. - Methanol hedging strategy table: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management according to different scenarios [59]. - Bullish information: The opposition leader in Iran called on workers in key oil, gas, and energy fields to go on a national strike and hold large - scale demonstrations [60]. - Bearish information: Iran's shipments in January were 310,000 tons [61]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Donald Trump expressed support for protesters, and the US government is discussing possible strikes against Iran, including air strikes on military targets, but no decision has been made [63]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland areas, the current methanol production is at an absolute high level, while winter is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. Coupled with the high raw material inventory of downstream users, some downstream areas have the phenomenon of vehicle congestion. Especially, some olefin plants in the ports have shutdown plans, which will further weaken the demand and suppress the sentiment of industry players [64]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month - difference fluctuated, mainly due to the increase in Iranian shipments [70]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - Multiple charts show the price trends of upstream and downstream products in the methanol industry chain, including coal prices, methanol market prices, and the number of warehouse receipts [74][75][80] 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Multiple charts show the profit trends of different production methods of methanol and its downstream products, such as coal - based production, natural - gas - based production, and coke - oven - gas - based production [86][88][90] 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Output Tracking in the Industry Chain - Multiple charts show the开工率 and output trends of methanol production and its downstream products, including the开工率 of major enterprises, different production methods, and the开工率 of downstream MTO and traditional downstream industries [92][95][102] 4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - Multiple charts show the import - export volume, price, and profit trends of methanol, including the import volume from different countries, the outer - disk structure, and the import profit [128][129] 4.5 Overseas Production Tracking - Multiple charts show the production utilization rate, output, and plant operation rate of overseas methanol, including the overall overseas capacity utilization rate, Iranian and non - Iranian plant operation rates [131][132] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory changes, and inventory - consumption ratios of methanol in ports from January 2025 to May 2026, including Iranian imports, non - Iranian imports, various types of demand, and inventory in different regions [135]