集运指数(欧线)观点：弱势震荡，04滚动布空、10空单酌情持有-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak oscillation. For the 2604 contract, consider rolling short - selling, and for the 2610 contract, hold short positions as appropriate [1][4][9] - Although there is marginal positive news about the rush - export of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the European Line during the off - season from March to April [9] Summary by Directory Overview - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to oscillate weakly. For the 2604 contract, consider rolling short - selling, and for the 2610 contract, hold short positions as appropriate [4] - In January and February, the sailings of the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January were generally delayed. After adjustment, the capacity statistics for the 5th week (January 26 - February 1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics for February (February 2 - March 1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. Considering the sailings from January 26 to March 1 as a whole, the capacity remained unchanged. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending. The weekly average capacity was revised up from 284,000 TEU/week last week to 295,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2%. The Spring Festival blank sailings are mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March [4] Supply - By reviewing the capacity distribution in the 5 weeks before and after the Spring Festival from 2024 to 2026, it is found that the post - festival capacity growth rate is significantly higher than that before and during the festival, indicating greater post - festival capacity pressure. In 2026, the average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival were 306,000, 234,000, and 322,000 TEU respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% [5] - The unstable situation in Iran has risen, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East may recur. Maersk plans to structurally resume the operation of the MECL route connecting the US East Coast and India/Middle East at the end of January and has formulated contingency plans. There is still a possibility that shipping companies will selectively resume sailing in the Red Sea after the Chinese Spring Festival until the second quarter [5] Demand - Due to the adjustment of the export VAT rebate policy, the rush - export of photovoltaic components may lead to a transfer of 20,000 - 50,000 TEU of transportation demand on the European Line from Q2 to Q1, and a total of 40,000 - 70,000 TEU of transportation demand on the Europe - Mediterranean route may be advanced. The concentrated rush - export may occur from the end of February to March [7] - The probability of a full - load situation at the end of February and the shipping companies announcing a General Rate Increase (GRI) on March 1 is relatively low. The rush - export of photovoltaic products is difficult to change the pattern of over - capacity at the monthly level, and the probability of continuous full - load is almost zero. The advance of some Q2 transportation demand to Q1 is negative for the transportation demand after April [7] Valuation - The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2,600/FEU. For the 2602 contract, assuming that the market center drops by a total of $700/FEU in the 5th and 6th weeks, considering the impact of sailing delays and cargo rejection, the valuation of the 2602 contract may be around 1,700 points, and it is expected to fluctuate with a narrow reduction in positions in the future [8] Viewpoints - For the 2604 contract, although there is marginal positive news about the rush - export of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the European Line during the off - season from March to April. In the next 1 - 2 months, consider rolling short - selling the 2604 contract, with the upper resistance level referring to the range of 1,200 - 1,250 points [9] - For the 2610 contract, last week's morning report suggested paying attention to the opportunity to establish short - position bottom positions, with the upper resistance level referring to the settlement price of 1,161 points for the 2510 contract. Affected by Maersk's MECL route resumption announcement, the expectation of resumption has increased, but the progress of the Gaza peace negotiation and the geopolitical situation in Iran still need to be monitored. Hold short positions as appropriate [9] - Strategy: For single - side trading, roll short - sell the 2604 contract and hold short positions of the 2610 contract as appropriate; for arbitrage, there is currently no opportunity [9] Revision Rules of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract - According to the announcement of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, the contract months are adjusted from "February, April, June, August, October, December" to "the nearest 1 - 6 consecutive months (excluding February) and the following two quarterly months", and the minimum price change is adjusted from "0.1 point" to "0.5 point" [20] - The adjustment of contract months will be implemented from February 10, 2026 (Tuesday), with the addition of EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 contracts. Considering the switch of the main contract, EC2603 will not be added. On March 31, 2026 (Tuesday), EC2703 will be added, and the back - end months will be adjusted according to the contract regulations [20] - The impact on the futures market: The derived arbitrage trading may be more diverse. In addition to the conventional arbitrage opportunities between bi - monthly contracts, pay attention to potential positive arbitrage opportunities such as 8 - 9 and 9 - 10 [20] Price - The SCFIS index on January 19 mainly reflects the prices of sailings departing in the 3rd week. It is expected that the SCFIS index on the 19th will be flat or lower than that on the 12th, with a subjective prediction in the range of 1,850 - 1,950 points [28] - The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2,600/FEU. The prices of major shipping companies show a downward trend [29][32] Demand Side - From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, in 2025, the container trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) showed certain changes compared with previous years. The trade volume in some months increased year - on - year, while in others it decreased [43] - From the perspective of Asia's exports to North America, in 2025, the container trade volume between Asia and North America also showed different trends in each month compared with previous years, with some months showing growth and others showing decline [45] Supply Side Supply Chain Risk Events - There are geopolitical risks in the Middle East, such as Iran's warning and Houthi armed forces' threats. Maersk plans to resume the MECL route at the end of January, and diplomatic efforts to resolve the Gaza conflict are ongoing [50] European Line Sailing Schedule - In January and February, the sailings of the AEU7 and FE4 routes were delayed. The capacity statistics were adjusted accordingly, with an increase of 2 blank sailings in the 5th week and a decrease of 2 blank sailings in February. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending, and the weekly average capacity increased [52] Capacity Comparison - By comparing the capacity before and after the Spring Festival from 2024 to 2026, it is found that the supply pressure in the 3 - 5 weeks after the Spring Festival may be greater than that before the Spring Festival [55] Turnover Efficiency - Information on the sailing speed of container ships, the number of idle container ships, and the congestion situation in various regions and ports is provided, which helps to understand the turnover efficiency of the shipping market [67][71][73] Static Capacity - Information on the delivery of new container ships of the top ten shipping companies in the past and future is provided, including the delivery of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships [85][88]