宏观周报：持续加大推进清理拖欠企业账款力度-20260118

Economic Policy - The focus on economic growth includes efforts to clear overdue corporate payments and wages, with special bonds issued to support local responsibilities[10] - The government aims to enhance housing supply to meet diverse consumer needs, emphasizing urban planning and infrastructure improvements[12] Infrastructure and Industry - Recent policies include the "AI + Manufacturing" initiative, targeting significant advancements in AI technology by 2027[11] - The government investment fund will support key strategic industries, including new energy, high-end equipment, and emerging technologies like quantum information and generative AI[11] Monetary Policy - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points and introduced a new 500 billion yuan re-lending for small and micro enterprises[14] - There is an expectation of 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, depending on economic conditions[15] Real Estate Policy - Tax incentives for home purchases have been extended, including a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial property loans to 30%[17] Consumer Policy - The government is promoting green consumption, with initiatives to support the replacement of old products with new, energy-efficient ones[18] Financial Regulation - The minimum margin requirement for financing securities has been increased from 80% to 100% for new contracts, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investors[21] Trade Policy - Adjustments to export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will take effect from April 1, 2026, with a reduction in the VAT rebate rate from 9% to 6%[25] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. Federal Reserve indicates that interest rates are nearing a neutral level, with future policy adjustments dependent on economic data[27] Risk Warning - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with potential underperformance in the execution of domestic policies[31]