海外政策周聚焦：高市早苗解散国会如何搅动资本市场？

Group 1: Political Context - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae intends to dissolve the House of Representatives at the beginning of the regular Diet session on January 23, with elections expected in early to mid-February[1] - The last dissolution of the House of Representatives occurred during the Ishiba regime, where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) only secured 191 seats, a decrease of 56 seats from before the dissolution[1][2] Group 2: Government Support and Strategy - Kishi's intention to reorganize the House stems from a mismatch between a weak Diet and a strong cabinet approval rating, which is significantly higher than that of the previous Ishiba government[2] - The current ruling coalition barely holds a majority in the House of Representatives, while the LDP's support rate remains high, prompting Kishi to seek a new election to strengthen her position[2][3] Group 3: Market Implications - A successful election could provide Kishi with a majority in the House, facilitating the implementation of aggressive fiscal and industrial policies, which may lead to a bullish stock market but raise concerns about Japan's debt sustainability[3][4] - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a significant increase, reflecting market optimism about Kishi's potential electoral success, with expectations that it could rise to 55,000 points by the end of March[3][4] Group 4: Economic Concerns - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 240%, raising questions about fiscal sustainability amid plans for record budget increases and substantial bond issuance[3][4] - The bond market is under pressure, with the five-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since its introduction in 2000, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal expansion and increased debt supply[4]