供需弱势格局暂未改变，关注外围扰动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase the export cost of PVC, but there may be a rush to export before April 1st. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact on supply due to intensified competition among upstream enterprises [8]. - Operationally, short - term unilateral trading can be conducted within the range, with the 2605 contract reference range of 4700 - 4950. For arbitrage, a positive spread between the 3 - 5 contracts can be considered [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.63%, a 0.04 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 2.3 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The supply pressure is still relatively high. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua has a 300,000 - ton new production capacity, and the supply expansion is coming to an end [8]. - In 2025, the new production capacity was 2.2 million tons, with a growth rate close to 8%, and the effective production capacity exceeded 29 million tons. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua has a 300,000 - ton new production capacity plan, and abroad, only the UAE has a 350,000 - ton plan to be put into production by the end of 2026 [25]. - Last week, the PVC output was 487,500 tons, a 0.05% decrease from the previous week and a 2.76% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the maintenance of facilities such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan [25]. 2. Demand - The operating rate of downstream products continued to be weak. It is the off - season for terminal demand, construction in northern construction sites has stopped, and orders are poor. Since April 1st, 2026, the export tax rebate for PVC value - added tax has been cancelled, and attention should be paid to the potential increase in short - and medium - term export demand [8]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.51 million tons, a 47% increase year - on - year. The main export destinations are India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc. India cancelled the BIS certification policy for PVC imports in November and the anti - dumping duty is expected to end, which is favorable for domestic PVC exports in the long run [63]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of Chinese PVC flooring materials was 3.7852 million tons, an 11.02% decrease year - on - year, mainly sold to Europe and the United States [65]. 3. Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory was 1.1441 million tons, a 2.69% increase from the previous week and a 52.49% increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 310,800 tons, a 5.3% decrease from the previous week and a 27.27% increase year - on - year. The futures registered warehouse receipt volume increased again [8]. 4. PVC Contract Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC remained stable and was higher year - on - year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable from the previous week and was higher year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure still maintained a contango pattern with higher prices in the distant future, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [18]. - The 9 - 1 spread remained stable from the previous week and was lower year - on - year. The basis of the main contract rebounded slightly from the previous week and was weaker year - on - year [19]. 5. Valuation - Last week, the price of semi - coke remained stable from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of calcium carbide also remained stable from the previous week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai region reported at 2,400 yuan/ton. There was a decrease in calcium carbide supply in Shaanxi, and Xinjiang increased its external procurement due to environmental protection [82]. - The price of ethylene decreased slightly from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of vinyl chloride remained stable from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years [86]. - The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of liquid chlorine rebounded significantly and was higher year - on - year [90]. - Last week, the loss of calcium carbide - based PVC slightly expanded and remained at a low level in the same period. The loss of ethylene - based PVC decreased, with a reduced loss year - on - year [93]. - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali continued to rise slightly from the previous week but decreased year - on - year [98].