PX加工费回调，PTA加工费持平

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is near the five - year low, but the technical side of Brent crude oil remains strong after the mid - line breakthrough. The fundamentals are boosted by geopolitical situations. The US's increasing control over Venezuela is conducive to the increase of Venezuelan oil supply in the medium term. The relatively low oil price and currency depreciation will support the oil price. The restrictions on fuel - powered vehicles in Europe and the US have been marginally relaxed. The PX profit is good, the operation rate is at a high level, the PX inventory is at a low level, and the tight pattern continues. - According to the production plan, the supply - demand fundamentals of PX and PTA are improving. There is no new PX production capacity planned to be put into operation in the first half of next year, and no new PTA production capacity is planned to be put into operation next year. The PTA spot processing fee is about 340 yuan/ton, still at a relatively low level. The processing fee of the May contract on the disk is around 345, which has increased since mid - December. Last week, the PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 77.22%, which is at a neutral level in the same period. - The inventory of PTA production enterprises is at a low level, the social inventory is relatively low, and the PTA inventory of downstream polyester factories is at a low level. - In December 2025, the actual consumption of PTA was 6.146 million tons. Last week, the polyester operation rate slightly dropped to 86.7% on a month - on - month basis, which is at a relatively high level in the same period. Last week, the output of the polyester industry was 1.55 million tons, and the year - on - year growth continued. Last week, the comprehensive operation rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 48.15%, slightly higher than the same period last year. - It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with support at around 4950 - 5050 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Upstream - The oil price is near the five - year low, but the technical side of Brent crude is strong after the mid - line breakthrough. The fundamentals are boosted by geopolitical situations. The US's control over Venezuela is strengthening, which is beneficial to the increase of Venezuelan oil supply in the medium term. Currency depreciation supports the relatively low oil price, and the restrictions on fuel - powered vehicles in Europe and the US are marginally relaxed. The PX profit is good, the operation is at a high level, the inventory is low, and the tight pattern continues [5]. Supply - According to the production plan, the PX and PTA supply - demand fundamentals are positive. There is no new PX production capacity planned in the first half of next year, and no new PTA production capacity next year. The PTA spot processing fee is about 340 yuan/ton (low), and the May contract processing fee on the disk is around 345, rising since mid - December. Last week, the PTA capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 77.22% (neutral in the same period) [5]. Inventory - PTA production enterprises' inventory is low, social inventory is low, and downstream polyester factories' PTA inventory is low. Last week, the PTA industry inventory was about 3.19 million tons, and the PTA factory inventory was 3.62 days. The polyester factory's PTA raw material inventory was 7.5 days last week, unchanged from the previous week [5][58][62]. Demand - In December 2025, PTA consumption was 6.146 million tons. Last week, the polyester operation rate dropped slightly to 86.7% (high in the same period). The polyester industry output was 1.55 million tons last week, with continued year - on - year growth. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang chemical fiber weaving operation rate was 48.15% last week, slightly higher than the same period last year [5][78][81]. Futures Market - The 1 - 5 spread is in the negative range, slightly in contango. The 5 - 9 spread is slightly in back. The overall futures monthly spread maintains a structure of near - term contango and far - term back. The basis is around 0 [9][12]. Valuation - The PX production profit has increased since last October and recently pulled back. The PTA spot processing fee has been flat in recent weeks, and the futures disk processing fee has rebounded significantly since mid - December [20][27][32]. Supply - side - The PTA capacity utilization rate dropped slightly to 77.22% on a month - on - month basis, at a neutral level in the same period. Last week, the PTA output was 1.45 million tons. With the increasing domestic self - sufficiency rate, the PTA import volume is low and can be basically ignored, and the export volume is lower than last year [48][52][53]. Demand - side - In December 2025, the PTA actual consumption was 6.146 million tons. Last week, the polyester operation rate dropped slightly to 86.7% (high in the same period). The polyester industry output was 1.55 million tons last week, with continued year - on - year growth. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang chemical fiber weaving operation rate was 48.15% last week, slightly higher than the same period last year. The overall export is weaker than last year [78][81][102].