地产行业周报：港资房企关注度升温，降准降息仍有空间-20260118

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The recent reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points is expected to help reduce storage costs and accelerate inventory clearance in commercial properties. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been lowered to 30%, which is anticipated to further decrease the cost of home ownership for residents [3] - The focus on Hong Kong property companies is increasing, with expectations for the Hong Kong real estate market to continue its upward trend in 2026. Key companies such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land have seen cumulative stock price increases of 18.9%, 12.4%, and 13.3% respectively [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant stock price and performance elasticity for major Hong Kong property companies during the market recovery phase, citing historical performance data from previous market cycles [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, with a total of 12,000 units sold. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in January (up to the 16th) showed a year-on-year decline of 26.8% and a month-on-month decline of 46.4% [4] - The inventory of commercial properties in 16 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current inventory of 90.74 million square meters and a clearance cycle of 21.1 months [12] - The real estate sector saw a decline of 3.52% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.57%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 60.05, placing it in the 93.83 percentile of the past five years [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Companies with light historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development, are expected to benefit from the "good housing" initiative [3] 2. Hong Kong property companies benefiting from market stabilization, including Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development [3] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, such as China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Poly Property [3]