南华期货铜产业周报：铜价跟踪逻辑从“资金面”回归到“节前供需”-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tracking logic of copper prices has shifted from "fundamentals" back to "pre - holiday supply - demand". The US CPI growth remained stable in December, with core CPI slightly lower than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts in January and March. Global copper speculative net - long funds in the three major exchanges significantly reduced their positions, and the market's fear of high prices became more evident. On the fundamental side, the spot smelting income of refined copper continued to rise week - on - week, and smelting enterprises had a high willingness to purchase. The Yangshan copper premium declined, and the sellers' shipping sentiment decreased. The "mismatch" between supply and demand due to the lack of downstream consumption growth and short - term copper inflows led to passive inventory replenishment, resulting in a significant increase in domestic copper inventories [2]. - In the short - term, the market may be calm before the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of the month. Futures prices will more likely follow the spot trading situation, with limited price fluctuations, and funds will still compete around the 100,000 yuan mark. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations [3]. - Cathode copper is in the middle of an upward trend, with a medium - risk - return ratio for going long (1%), suggesting moderate participation; LME copper is also in the middle of an upward trend, with a low - risk - return ratio for going long (0.93%), suggesting cautious participation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - factors: US CPI growth was stable in December, with core CPI slightly lower than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts in January and March. The Fed's probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 78.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.9% [2]. - Fundamental factors: The spot smelting income of refined copper continued to rise week - on - week, and smelting enterprises had a high willingness to purchase. The Yangshan copper premium declined, and the sellers' shipping sentiment decreased. The "mismatch" between supply and demand due to the lack of downstream consumption growth and short - term copper inflows led to passive inventory replenishment, resulting in a significant increase in domestic copper inventories [2]. - Market factors: When prices were fluctuating at high levels during the week, both long and short funds reduced their positions to adjust portfolios. The market may be calm next week before the Fed's interest rate decision, and futures prices will more likely follow the spot trading situation [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - Trend Judgment: Cathode copper is in the middle of an upward trend, with a medium - risk - return ratio for going long (1%); LME copper is also in the middle of an upward trend, with a low - risk - return ratio for going long (0.93%) [3]. - Strategy Recommendations: Do not recommend opening new positions above 100,000 yuan; continue to hold long positions established in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range, and flexibly adjust long positions established in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range; aggressive investors can consider combination strategies; enterprises needing to purchase spot copper can make batch purchases at appropriate prices considering capital pressure, or consider over - the - counter option hedging plans suitable for range - bound markets without considering capital pressure [3]. - Base - spread, Month - spread, and Cross - border Spread Strategies: The base - spread strategy is bearish, with a 3% probability of expansion in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The month - spread strategy is neutral, with a 55% probability of expansion. The cross - border spread is within the normal range, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Suggestions - For enterprises with low raw material inventories worried about price increases, they can consider buying the main futures contract when prices fall to support levels (the first support level is around 99,000 yuan, and the second is around 96,000 yuan), buying up - and - out accumulator options in the 96,000 - 105,650 yuan range, or using a combination of selling put options and buying call options in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range [15]. 3.1.4 Review of Trading and Hedging Strategies - Due to the roll - over of the February contract and reduced liquidity, the hedging strategy of buying this contract was closed, waiting for an opportunity to re - establish positions. The risk - reversal synthetic long strategy had a small profit when the call option became in - the - money during the sharp rise in futures prices last week, and then entered a range - bound period [16][17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The US December CPI was stable at 2.7% year - on - year, and core CPI was 2.6%, indicating controllable inflation with resilience. State Grid announced that its fixed - asset investment during the 14th Five - Year Plan period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the 13th Five - Year Plan period, which will drive the development of the new power system industry chain. In 2025, the cumulative production of cathode copper by 24 sample enterprises was 12.3389 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.38%. In 2026, the copper production of Chile is expected to be between 550,000 and 570,000 tons, higher than last year's estimate of 540,000 tons [19]. - Negative Information: The probability of a Fed rate cut in January and March decreased. Nvidia corrected the copper demand data for data centers, significantly reducing the expected copper demand. Domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, with Shanghai and Jiangsu markets increasing and the Guangdong market decreasing. The copper production of Kamoa - Kakula's smelter is expected to reach an annualized 500,000 tons by the end of 2026. Luoyang Molybdenum's 2026 copper production guidance is between 760,000 and 820,000 tons [20][21][22]. - Exchange Information: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin, trading limit, and opening quantity of silver, tin, and nickel futures contracts to prompt investors to manage risks and maintain market stability [24]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretations Next week, important macro - economic indicators will be released, including China's fixed - asset investment, industrial added - value, GDP, and the US GDP deflator, initial jobless claims, PCE price index, etc. [27] 3.3 Chapter 3: Interpretation of Disk Price - Volume and Funds - Domestic Market Interpretation: Affected by exchange regulatory measures, US tariff policies, and Nvidia's report, funds flowed out, and futures prices fell from high levels. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai copper weighted index decreased week - on - week, and market speculation fluctuated around the median [29]. - International Market Interpretation: LME copper and Comex copper reached new highs and then declined. The LC spread narrowed to within - 60 US dollars per ton, which may slow down the inventory accumulation of Comex copper. However, the open interest of the active Comex copper contract remained at a high level, and speculators reduced their net - long positions [31]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Analysis of Spot Prices and Profits 3.4.1 Spot Prices and Smelting Profits - The spot smelting income of refined copper continued to rise week - on - week, and smelting enterprises had a high willingness to purchase. The Yangshan copper premium declined, and the sellers' shipping sentiment decreased. After the holiday, the trading sentiment in the spot market improved slightly, with the purchase intensity index of electrolytic copper higher than the sales sentiment. The downstream industries of copper tubes and copper strips are expected to see a continued week - on - week increase in their weekly operating rates [38][39]. 3.4.2 Import Profits and Import Volumes - The copper import profit "first declined and then rebounded", and the import profit of recycled copper increased significantly. The Shanghai - London ratio declined, the LC spread narrowed, and the shipping willingness in the bonded area was strong, putting pressure on the Yangshan copper premium. In December 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased year - on - year. The volume of copper concentrates arriving in China in January will decrease month - on - month [41]. 3.4.3 Inventory Analysis - Global visible copper inventories continued to rise. Comex copper continued to accumulate inventory, with a total of over 540,000 tons. China's copper inventories increased significantly month - on - month, and LME copper inventories also increased. The increase in domestic copper inventories was mainly due to the "mismatch" between supply and demand, resulting in passive inventory replenishment [44]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectations 3.5.1 Supply Deduction - In 2025, the global copper concentrate production was expected to be 19.871 million metal tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 166,000 metal tons. In 2026, the global copper concentrate production is expected to be 20.316 million metal tons, and the supply - demand balance is - 456,000 metal tons. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.159 million tons, higher than expected. In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to be 1.1636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45 tons, mainly due to smelter maintenance, statistical cycle issues, and tight copper concentrate supply [49][50]. 3.5.2 Demand Expectations - In January, the operating rates of most copper - related industries are expected to continue to increase slightly month - on - month. The copper foil industry has the highest prosperity, followed by the electrolytic copper rod industry, copper rod industry, copper strip industry, and recycled copper rod industry. The operating rate of the electrolytic copper rod industry increased the most, mainly due to post - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises and pre - holiday inventory building by enterprises [52]. 3.5.3 Price Expectations - Affected by multiple events, domestic and international copper prices first rose and then fell. The market sentiment fluctuated. Futures prices may be calm next week before the Fed's interest rate decision, following the spot trading situation, with limited price fluctuations, and funds will still compete around the 100,000 yuan mark. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations [55].